The Report on the State Parties

A Brookings Institution study of state parties, authored by Ray La Raja and Jonathan Rauch, is the latest of the sober commentaries on contemporary campaign finance.

La Raja and Rauch conclude that state parties have lost significant ground to outside groups and are impeded in large part by Federal regulation, mostly by McCain-Feingold, in performing critical functions.

They would like to see state parties:

- Increase or eliminate contribution limits
- Deregulation to enhance their ability to coordinate with candidates
- Conduct ticket-wide activities
- Public financing measures in the form of tax deductible contributions

The strengthening of state parties, they are convinced, can promote more moderate politics; it can offset to some extent the polarizing forces unleashed by “outside groups.”

The report is a contribution to the growing consensus that campaign finance laws today are unworkable and in desperate need of reform.

The question is: are state parties, for the reasons given, an appropriately special focus of reform?

As the authors note, there are other reasons for the struggles of state parties and the rise of the outside groups. Laws and rules may add to the problem but are not its exclusive cause.

Much of what La Raja and Rauch say about state parties would apply to the parties as a whole, at the national as well as the state and local level, and there are other actors within the regulated system also clamoring with justification for relief from outdated, burdensome, and pointless regulatory limits.

CLICK HERE to read the 25 page (PDF) report.











NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker

The Demographic Evolution of The American Electorate

It is no secret that the demography of the American electorate is changing. As it turns out, these trends will continue to matter. An incredibly detailed new report, “America’s Electoral Future,” released today by the Center for American Progress, in collaboration with the American Enterprise Institute and the Brookings Institution, goes in depth to explain exactly what could happen to the American political landscape and makes the case that demographic shifts will play a critical role in future Presidential elections from 2016-2032.

So what exactly is happening to the makeup of the American electorate? According to the report, two key things: first, the younger part of the electorate is becoming more racially diverse; and second, the older part of the voting population is growing more rapidly given the aging of the Baby boom generation.

The authors emphasize that while demography is a key factor in shaping America’s future, it must be considered in relationship with other factors such as voter preference, current issues, and candidate selection. The report does not intend to predict electoral outcomes, but it does paint an insightful picture of what lays ahead for both parties in coming elections. The study runs six simulations to show how shifts in race, age, and generation, both on the state and national levels, could affect election outcomes in presidential races until 2032.

Both Republicans and Democrats face considerable challenges in adjusting to the foreseeable changes in the makeup of the American voting bloc. While Democrats may continue to benefit from changing demographics, they face an uphill battle among aging white voters, especially in slow-growing Midwestern and Rust Belt swing states.

By contrast, Republicans face a clear vulnerability among the nation’s growing minority populations, especially with Hispanic and Asian populations. States traditionally considered Republican strongholds, such Georgia and Texas, will see considerable increases in the percentage of eligible voters of color in 2016. And on the other end of the spectrum, the number of states where whites exceed 80 percent of eligible voters should be reduced from 23 states in 2016 to just 11 states in 2032. As a majority of the report’s scenarios show, even under assumptions of increased support among white voters, the GOP will need to shift its focus towards appealing to diverse voters.

Demographics are not destiny, but they will have a significant impact on the American political landscape. This new report presents a vision of a transforming America that when translated into political terms has serious implications for candidates who fail to see eye to eye with a changing electorate. In coming years, both parties will have to adapt to compete for support from an increasingly diverse pool of voters.

CLICK HERE to see the different ways demographic shifts could shape the political landscape, check out this interactive election oracle.

CLICK HERE to read the America’s Electoral Future by William H. Frey, Ruy Teixeira, Rob Griffin.

William H. Frey is a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. Ruy Teixeira is a Senior Fellow at The Century Foundation and the Center for American Progress. Robert Griffin is a Senior Policy Analyst at the Center for American Progress.











NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker

What America Voters Will Look Like in 2060

The changing face of the typical American voter stands to make a transformative impact on future U.S. politics as the electorate shifts to “majority-minority.”  A new report from the Center for American Progress, the American Enterprise Institute, and the Brookings Institution predicts the makeup of states over the next 45 years, and what that means for the democratic process.

The report, entitled States of Change: The Demographic Evolution of the American Electorate, 1974-2060, examined population data to pinpoint the “tipping year” for states where the current minority population will become the majority.  The U.S. as a whole is expected to reach that tipping point in 2052.  Many states already have Caucasian minorities, including California, Texas, and Arizona.

10 Big Trends that are Transforming America

1: The rise of majority-minority and near-majority-minority states.

2: The diversification of eligible voters.

3: The lagged diversification of actual voters.

4: The rise of post-Baby Boom generations.

5: The super-diversification of America’s children.

6: The graying of America.

7: The diversification of the gray.

8: The decline of the white working class.

9: The rise of white college graduates.

10: The rise of the unmarried electorate.

CLICK HERE to read the entire report.











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