The Demographic Evolution of The American Electorate

It is no secret that the demography of the American electorate is changing. As it turns out, these trends will continue to matter. An incredibly detailed new report, “America’s Electoral Future,” released today by the Center for American Progress, in collaboration with the American Enterprise Institute and the Brookings Institution, goes in depth to explain exactly what could happen to the American political landscape and makes the case that demographic shifts will play a critical role in future Presidential elections from 2016-2032.

So what exactly is happening to the makeup of the American electorate? According to the report, two key things: first, the younger part of the electorate is becoming more racially diverse; and second, the older part of the voting population is growing more rapidly given the aging of the Baby boom generation.

The authors emphasize that while demography is a key factor in shaping America’s future, it must be considered in relationship with other factors such as voter preference, current issues, and candidate selection. The report does not intend to predict electoral outcomes, but it does paint an insightful picture of what lays ahead for both parties in coming elections. The study runs six simulations to show how shifts in race, age, and generation, both on the state and national levels, could affect election outcomes in presidential races until 2032.

Both Republicans and Democrats face considerable challenges in adjusting to the foreseeable changes in the makeup of the American voting bloc. While Democrats may continue to benefit from changing demographics, they face an uphill battle among aging white voters, especially in slow-growing Midwestern and Rust Belt swing states.

By contrast, Republicans face a clear vulnerability among the nation’s growing minority populations, especially with Hispanic and Asian populations. States traditionally considered Republican strongholds, such Georgia and Texas, will see considerable increases in the percentage of eligible voters of color in 2016. And on the other end of the spectrum, the number of states where whites exceed 80 percent of eligible voters should be reduced from 23 states in 2016 to just 11 states in 2032. As a majority of the report’s scenarios show, even under assumptions of increased support among white voters, the GOP will need to shift its focus towards appealing to diverse voters.

Demographics are not destiny, but they will have a significant impact on the American political landscape. This new report presents a vision of a transforming America that when translated into political terms has serious implications for candidates who fail to see eye to eye with a changing electorate. In coming years, both parties will have to adapt to compete for support from an increasingly diverse pool of voters.

CLICK HERE to see the different ways demographic shifts could shape the political landscape, check out this interactive election oracle.

CLICK HERE to read the America’s Electoral Future by William H. Frey, Ruy Teixeira, Rob Griffin.

William H. Frey is a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. Ruy Teixeira is a Senior Fellow at The Century Foundation and the Center for American Progress. Robert Griffin is a Senior Policy Analyst at the Center for American Progress.











NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker

Key Lessons In The Fight To Reduce Poverty

TalkPoverty.org is a project of the Half in Ten Education Fund and is dedicated to demonstrating that we know how to dramatically reduce poverty.  The website brings together basic data about poverty in America; the voices of those living in poverty and those dedicated to the fight against poverty; and resources to get involved with local, state and national organizations to take action.

It features a post from Center for American Progress President, Neera Tanden, who opens up about her own personal story facing poverty as a child, and explains why we have a historic opportunity right now to take meaningful steps to reduce poverty in America.  She recalls the times, after her parents divorced, when her family benefited from a federal housing subsidy, and when they “were the only shoppers in line using food stamps.”  An expert on poverty and a witness to it, she shares some key lessons:

1. The Safety Net Is A Bridge: “For my family, as for many American families, the safety net was a bridge that carried us through hard times.  That’s why it’s important that I tell my story.”

2. This Is A Historic Opportunity To Address Poverty: “I believe we have a historic opportunity to address poverty today, because the interests of low-income people and the middle class are converging.  Median wages—the wages of middle-income earners—have been stagnant for twelve years.  People recognize there is growing inequality in this country and that something is amiss when companies are doing well but people aren’t – when dividends, stock prices, and CEO salaries rise but wages don’t.”

3. The Political Strategy To Avoid Talking About Poverty Is A Mistake: “Among some on the center left, there is a political strategy to not talk directly about poverty.  Many will say things like ‘trying to get people to the middle class.’  I think that strategy is a mistake.  If we fail to talk openly about poverty, we miss an opportunity to address people’s anxieties and misconceptions about low-income people.  We fail to correct the misunderstandings about who poor people are, and we fail to make progress we otherwise could.”

4. Low-Income People Need More Of A Platform: “We need to give more low-income people the opportunity to tell their stories at Congressional hearings, so our elected officials see the true face of poverty in America, and I applaud the Senate HELP Committee for providing a platform.”

5. We Need To Force The Issue Of Poverty To The Forefront In 2014 And 2016: “It’s time for a new focus on the solutions to poverty, both in the November elections, and during the presidential election in 2016.  To force the issue to the forefront of the national conversation, advocates in Washington and in communities across the country will need to mobilize and speak out.  People will need to raise the issue at town halls just as we did for health care reform.  We all need to stand with workers who are fighting for better wages and working conditions and give them opportunities to tell their stories.  It’s not a question of whether change will come from the grassroots or Washington—we need to fight for good policy in Washington and raise our voices at the state and local levels.”

6. We Can’t Miss This Opportunity: “We’re all in the same boat now, searching for economic stability for our families and an economy that raises wages for everyone.  It’s time for us to make that case clearly and unapologetically.  There are many times when we miss opportunities in public policy. We can’t miss this one.”

Be sure to visit talkpoverty.org to read the entire article.

BOTTOM LINE: 46 million Americans live in poverty, including more than one in five children.  We need to have an informed conversation about how to dramatically reduce poverty in this country.  And we can’t miss the opportunity we have right now.










NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote!

Michael H. Drucker
Technorati Tag in Del.icio.us