In Typical Midterm Election years, few Party Primaries garner much Attention. Intramural PoliticalCcontests tend to be such Sleepy Affairs that only about 1 in 5 Eligible Voters bother to Cast a Ballot. With the First Elections of 2026 barely Two Weeks away, this Season’s Primaries are shaping up to be Raucous, Crowded, and Reflective of the Ideological, Stylistic, and Generational Tensions in both Parties.
It is a Situation like No other in recent Memory. So far, Nine Senators and 50 House Members, are Retiring or Running for Higher Office, Opening Seats, and Opportunities for Diverse Contenders across the Map. Add to that the Heightened Stakes: Control of both Congressional Chambers within either Party’s Grasp, a Sour Mood among Voters and a History in Midterms where the President's Party almost always Suffers Losses. Career Politicians are being Drawn into the Arena, and so are Attractive Newcomers from other Walks-of-Life.
Such an Environment “leads a lot of people to consider being candidates themselves,” said Nathan Gonzales, who Runs the Nonpartisan Analysis Website Inside Elections. “They think: ‘Why not me?’” It would take a Small Pickup for Democrats to Gain Control of the House, where they hold Four fewer Seats than Republicans, with Three Vacancies. Winning back the Senate is a Bigger Lift; they would have to gain Four Seats, and the 2026 Map has them mostly playing Defense of the Ones they Hold.
This year’s Election will be Played at the Margins. Given how many Districts and States are Safely in the Hands of One Party or the Other, the Vast Majority of Congressional Races will Effectively be Over when a Primary Winner is Crowned. Cook Political Report Rates only 18 of 435 House Races and Four of the 35 Senate Seats up 2026, as True Toss-Ups in November.
“More so than ever, the primaries will determine the shape and contours of the next Congress,” said Nick Troiano, Rxecutive Director of the Nonpartisan Unite America, which Seeks to Break the Hold that the Two Parties have over Elections through Open Primaries and Ranked-Choice Voting. “For people to have their voices heard, the primaries are the whole ballgame.”
The Small Slice of the Electorate that usually Votes in Primaries is Not exactly Representative of Voters more Generally, according to a New Analysis of 2024 Voter File Data by Unite America’s Research Arm. Where a Plurality of General Election Voters identify as Independents and Moderates, those who Vote in Primaries are more Ideological and Partisan, as well as Older, Whiter, and Wealthier.
But the Number of Hot Races this year, may give more Voters Reason to Turn Out for Them. The recent 11-Candidate Democratic Primary in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, a Special Election to Ffill the House Seat Vacated by Newly Inaugurated Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D) is a Case-in-Point. It featured Contenders Spanning the Party’s Spectrum, drew Millions-of-Dollars in Outside Spending, and Produced a Stunning, Razor-Thin Upset Victory by Progressive Organizer Analilia Mejia.
As Primary Season goes Forward, it will become Clearer whether Democrats Wwrit Large are Tilting Left or Steering toward the Center, Voting with Passion or Pragmatism. Multi-Candidate Republican Primaries will Test, among other Things, whether Trump’s (R) Endorsement is still a Magic Bullet, or whether GOP Voters are growing Wary of His Full-Speed-Ahead Agenda.
Here are Six Noteworthy Early Primary Contests:
North Carolina, March 3rd: The Democratic was led by Novice Candidates with Appealing Outsider Biographies, many of whom Flipped Long-Held Republican Districts. The Mountains and Foothills of western North Carolina, Home to the State’s 11th Congressional District, are a Good Place to see the Beginning of this Trend at work in 2026. Though the District Includes the picturesque, and Politically blue. City of Asheville, No Democrat has Represented it for more than a Decade. Chuck Edwards (R) has held the District since 2023, and Trump carried it by 10 points in 2024. Jamie Ager, a Fourth-Generation Farmer who has never Run for Office, is hoping to Change that. “I looked around and saw that 2026 is sort of this moment in history when we need good leadership in this country,” said Ager, One of Five Democrats Running to oust Edwards. “And I am in a uniquely interesting place to go win.” Ager has so far raised the most Money among the Democrats. But He is Not alone in the Race. Richard Hudspeth, a Family Physician in a Small Town south of Asheville, is another First-Time Candidate. He is looking to take on the Republican led Congress’s Cutting of Rural Health Care. Will 2024 be a Repeat of 2018 for Democrats? It Starts with Finding the Right Candidates to meet the Moment, and fit the District.
Texas, March 3rd: A Gerrymandered Scramble. It is a Rare thing for the Lone Star State to have Marquee Races at the Top of both the Democratic and Republican Ballots, which is why the Contests for the Two Parties’ U.S. Senate Nominations are getting so much National Attention. But the GOP-Led Legislature’s Audacious Mid-Decade Redistricting Sscheme to Win Five additional Congressional Seats has also set off a Scramble making Downballot Primary Races as Crowded and Confusing as the Dallas Freeway system. There are a Dozen Open-Seat House Contests, Six of which have 10 or more Candidates. Some might Advance to the May 26th Runoff with the Slimmest of Pluralities. Democrats have Not been Daunted by the many Newly Drawn Districts that Favor the GOP. When Rep. Greg Casar’s Reliably Blue 35th District near San Antonio was Gutted to Favor a Republican, He Bolted to Run in the nearby 37th. In the District He Left behind, however, Four other Democrats have Stepped Up, Hoping to be the One who Challenges whoever among the 11 Republicans Running Manages to make it to the November Ballot. “I’m surprised that only four Democrats are in this race, because I was preaching that this is a winnable seat for Democrats,” said Marine Corps Veteran John Lira (D) Running in the 35th District, who Argues that the Larger Political Shifts this yea,r could be enough to Overcome the 10-Point Margin by which Trump Won the New District in 2024. If so, it might Turn-Out that 2026’s Great Gerrymandering Gambit will have Backfired.
Illinois, March 17th: The Money vs. the Machine: When Octogenarian Dick Durbin, a Senator for nearly Three Decades, Announced in 2025, He would Not be Seeking another Term, He Opened-Up a Ssafe Democratic Seat, and a torrent of pent-up political ambition. No fewer than 10 people are running in the primary. A trio are considered the strongest contenders: Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, and Rep. Robin Kelly. Like Democrats across the Country, the Three are tailoring their Messages to Voters’ concerns about Rising Costs and Affordability. Where they Differ are in the Allies and Assets they are Bringing to the Battle.
Stratton, whom Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker has Endorsed, throwing His Formidable Political Machinery behind Her, is Campaigning on Her Experience, Positioning Herself as the Most Effective Counter to Trump, and Vowing to Fight for a Raft of Progressive Policies, including Medicare-for-All. Krishnamoorthi, who has a Massive Financial Advantage and is the Most Moderate among the Leaders in the Race, is Campaigning on Issues, like Free School Lunches and a Tax Credit for New Homeowners. Kelly has Channeled Populist Passions by Proposing a Minimum Tax on those whose Net Worth Exceeds $100 million. Voters in this reliably Blue State are Looking for Pragmatic and Centrist Candidates Who can Reposition their Party, do they want to Stoke their Base with Progressive Ideas, or are they Looking for a Champion to take the Fight to Trump? The Illinois Primary could Offer a Barometer of where Democrats across the Country will come down on these Questions as they Seek a Path back to Power in Washington.
Ohio, May 5th: The GOP Targets a Democratic Survivor Again. Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) has Fended Off Everything Republicans have Thrown at Her over the Years.
Kaptur, 79, has Represented Northwest Ohio for more than Four Decades and is the Longest-Serving Woman in Congressional History. Thanks to Her Deep Connection with Her Working-Class Community and the Weaknesses of a String of Imperfect Republican Candidates, Kaptur has Managed to Hold-On as the Rust Belt has moved Further and Further Right in the Trump Era. This time, Ohio Republicans, at Trump’s Urging, Rredistricted the State and Changed Kaptur’s from a District that Marginally leaned toward Republicans to One that Overwhelmingly FavorsT them. “Let the Columbus politicians make their self-serving maps and play musical chairs,” Kaptur said in Response. “I will fight on for the people.” Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) has Rrepresented Northwest Ohio for more than Four Decades and is the Longest-Serving Woman in Congressional History. More than a Six Republican Ccandidates are Running for the Chance to Challenge Her in November, a Crowded, Noisy, Primary that, like Past Contests, could Hobble them in their Effort to Finally Remove Kaptur.
Derek Merrin, the former Ohio State Representative Kaptur Defeated in 2024, is on the Vallot again, along with Ohio State Rep. Josh Williams and Air Force Veteran Alea Nadeem. But Republicans are growing more Excited about Madison Sheahan, the Former Second-in-Command at U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), who Jumped into the Eace in 1/2026. Republicans are Setermined to Dield a Candidate Cclosely Aligned with Trump’s Record, like Sheahan, even as Polling shows Broad Disapproval of ICE and Immigration Enforcement? Or will they Turn to more Traditional, Less MAGA-Aligned Candidates? Their Choice in Races like this One may be what Matters most in November.
Kentucky, May 19th: Does Trump still call the shots? There are probably Few People that Trump would be Happier to see go down to Defeat than a fellow Republican, Rep. Thomas Massie of Deep-Red Kentucky. On Issue after Issue, Massie has loudly stood up to Trump, most notably by Pushing the Legislation that Forced the Release of Millions of Government Files on Jeffrey Epstein. Trump has called the Six-Term lawmaker a Lightweight, a Grandstander, and a Loser. And He Recruited and Endorsed Ed Gallrein, a Farmer and Former Navy SEAL, to Challenge Him. “It’s a proxy battle, and not just about a little congressional race in Kentucky,” Massie said in an Interview. “The question at hand is whether you have to fall in line and be a rubber stamp for the president if you’re a congressman, or whether you can exhibit some semblance of independence 10 percent of the time. If I lose, I think it’s a very dark moment for our party. The attacks on me are motivated. I believe, by the desire to keep my colleagues in line,”. What could Save Massie, He believes, is the Effort He has put into establishing His Own Identity in His Home State. “I’ve taken a lot of care to explain my votes when it’s not intuitive that they are actually the conservative positions,” Massie said. Gallrein has Accused Massie of having “a problem for every solution.” Other Republicans will No Doubt be Eatching the Kentucky Primary Closely. It could be this Year’s Biggest Test of Whether the GOP remains in the Iron Grip of an Increasingly Unpopular President, or whether more of them can Feel Safer Charting their Own Course Forward.
Maine, June 9th: The Establishment vs. the Insurgency, Maine is One of the Nation’s most Closely Watched Primaries, and for Good Reason. It’s One of the Four most Competitive Senate Races in the Country, and it Represents what is believed to be the Democrats’ Best Chance to Pick Up a Seat. But it also puts the Party in a Deeply Uncomfortable Situation. The Democratic Primary pits 78-year-old Gov. Janet Mills, Handpicked by the Party establishment, against Insurgent Graham Platner, 41, a Charismatic Oyster Farmer and Military Veteran. Both are seeking to Unseat Sen. Susan Collins (R), who is Running for Her Sixth Tterm and has Garnered a Reputation as One of the few Republicans to Occasionally Stand-Up to Trump. Early Polls indicated Platner held a Sizable Lead over Mills, Despite past Reddit Posts that Downplayed Sexual Assault in the Military and a Tattoo Resembling a Nazi Symbol, that Platner said He had Changed late last year. But the Race has Forced Democrats to weigh their Now-Familiar Qualms about the Age of so many of their Leaders, and Balance the Reliability of Tried-and-Tested Candidates. ills has Twice Won Statewide, against Taking-a-Chance on Appealing Newcomers. In some ways, the Primary has become a Test of Democrats’ Tolerance for Risk, in a Year when they are Desperate for the Political Winds to Blow them Back into Power. Only One thing looks Certain: If their Pick in June Fails to Defeat Collins in November, the Missed Opportunity will Haunt them for a Long Time to come.
Michael H. Drucker
