Oklahoma just became the First State to release Draft House and Senate District Maps for the Next Decade.
These maps are notable in that they use American Community Survey Data, Not Census Data, to Equalize Population.
The Maps were also Released in the least User-Friendly way possible, without Shape Files or Block Assignment Files, that would facilitate their Analysis.
Nevertheless, PlanScore Executive Director and Data Whiz, Mike Migurski, managed to Evaluate the Maps’ likely Partisan effects, and they’re Atrocious.
Gerrymandering is when Political District Boundaries are drawn to Benefit One Group over another, thus creating an Imbalance in the Value of Votes Cast for each side.
The Efficiency Gap is a way of Quantifying this effect by Counting the Number of Wasted Votes for each Party and Identifying Large Imbalances towards either Side.
- First, identifying All of the Wasted Votes in Victory and Defeat for both Parties.
- Next, Adds them up, and finds the Difference between the Two Sides.
- Finally, Divides that by the Total Number of Votes in the State.
The Efficiency Gap is a Measure of Partisan Symmetry. This Measure, which should be a Single Percentage, 1%-9%, for District Maps, is a practical Legal Test for Political Gerrymandering Cases.
The State House Maps has an expected Pro-Republican Efficiency Gap of 13%, remaining in Double Digits in almost any Electoral Environment.
The State Senate Maps has an Expected Pro-Republican Efficiency Gap of 15%, also remaining in Double Digits in essentially All Electoral Conditions.
These are staggeringly Bad Scores, at the Outer Edge of the Historical Distribution.
They’re a Preview of the Ruthless Gerrymandering we’re likely to see this Cycle in States with Single-Party Control of Redistricting.
This probably Explain why Oklahoma Released the Maps in such a Nontransparent Format, to try to Prevent their Partisan Implications from being Apparent.
NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker
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