FL Democrats Gain Vote-by-Mail Advantage

Democrats have opened up a 302,000 Voter Advantage over Republicans in Vote-by-Mail Enrollment.

Five months before Election Day, more than 1.46 million Democrats have Signed-Up to Vote-by-Mail compared to 1.16 million Republicans, according to an Analysis of State Division of Election Data released Friday, June 19th. By comparison, in 2016, Democrats held an Advantage of about 8,800 in Vote-by-Mail Enrollment.

The reason for the success is Twofold. Democrats have put heightened emphasis on getting more People to Cast Ballots from Home, an effort that preceded the onset of the Coronavirus Pandemic. And Trump has Demonized this type of Voting so much that Republicans, who once Dominated Mail-in-Ballots, are souring on it.

Florida's Vote-by-Mail Enrollment gap is among a number of Warning Signs for Trump, who carried the State by fewer than 113,000 Votes, or 1.19 percentage points, Four years ago.

Trump’s Democratic Opponent, Joe Biden, has Led in every Public Poll in the State over the past Two months by an average of 4.6 points. Democrats have a 2-point lead over Republicans in the Number of Registered Voters as of April 30th, State data show.

Any Registered Voter in Florida can Request a Mail-In Ballot up until 10 days before an Election, a Policy put in place nearly 20 years ago in the wake of the Chaotic 2000 Presidential Recount.

There has been a heightened interest in Vote-by-Mail due to the Coronavirus Pandemic as Democrats have backed it as an Alternative to Standing in Line at Polling Places. A Democratic-aligned super PAC and other left-leaning Groups have filed a Federal Lawsuit demanding the State make it Easier to Vote-by-Mail.

Of the New People Democrats have Enrolled to Vote-by-Mail, about a Third are classified as Sporadic or Inactive Voters, only about 25% of whom can be expected to turn out at the Polls. But 40% of these Infrequent Voters cast Ballots in 2018 when they Signed-Up to Vote-by-Mail.

In Florida, the number of Republicans Signed-Up to Cast Vote-by-Mail Ballots has Declined by 186,000 since 2018, while Democrats have Increased their numbers by 69,000, according to the Latest State Data. It’s a stark turnaround for a Party that famously Won a 1988 U.S. Senate race thanks to Mailed-In Ballots.

The Margin has Increased since the March 17th Presidential Primary, when Democrats had an Advantage by 47,000 People Enrolled to Vote-by-Mail.

It’s Not just Florida where the Vote-by-Mail Gap has Widened between the Two Parties.

In Swing-State Michigan, Republicans this month Burned Mail-in-Ballot Signup Forms in Protest. In Texas, Rice University Political Science Professor, Bob Stein, said Support for Mail-in-Voting Dropped in real time among Republican Voters in Harris County as he conducted a Survey that gauged Attitudes about Voting Methods while Trump Criticized Vote-by-Mail.

In Pennsylvania, Democrats Cast a disproportionate Number of Mail-in-Ballots during a June 2nd Primary.

Wisconsin Democrats have focused more on Mail-in-Voting after its Disaster Primary, as have Georgia Democrats following that State’s Problematic June 9th Primary.

In Florida, a June Poll showed a growing Number of Republican Voters plan to Vote-in-Person on Election Day while Democrats say they Plan to Cast their Ballots by Mail. Democrats who have Voted by Mail in the past will do so again. Republicans have increasingly taken Advantage of In-Person using Early Voting before Election Day.










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