On Monday, Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court released New Congressional Districts Maps created by Stanford Prof. Nathaniel Persily to replace the State’s Old, Republican-Drawn Boundaries, which were struck down as an Illegal Partisan Gerrymander in Violation of the State Constitution’s Guarantee of “Free and Equal” Elections. These New Lines will not only allow for much Fairer Elections, but they’ll also Improve Democrats’ chances of taking back the House this November.
In ordering a New Map, the Court laid down particular Nonpartisan criteria it wanted the Legislature to follow: Any New Districts should be both Compact and Limit the Number of Cities and Counties split between Districts. Republican Legislative Leaders first refused to pass a New Map, then the Governor Reject their New Map, so the Court turned to Persily for guidance. Persily’s Map complies with both of the Court’s criteria. But most interestingly, the Court appears to have deliberately adopted a Map that should give both Parties a shot at winning an equitable number of Seats, as befits Pennsylvania’s Swing-State status. In other words, this Map isn’t just Nonpartisan, it’s Fair.
According to calculations from Political Scientist Brian Amos, these Redrawn Lines contain 10 Districts won by Trump in 2016 versus Eight carried by Hillary Clinton. Given that Trump carried Pennsylvania by just a 48.2% to 47.5% margin, that’s a much more Equitable distribution than the Invalidated Map’s 12-to-Six split. This New Map could consequently give Democrats a much better chance of winning Six Districts that Republicans currently hold.
Because this New Map did not take into account where Pennsylvania’s current Members of Congress live or what sort of Districts they might have preferred, we can’t say for certain yet where each Incumbent currently seeking Re-Election might choose to Run. However, an educated guesses, based in part on the Population Redistribution Data, can be made.
Based off these surmises, Democratic chances would likely improve against Republicans:
PA-01 (Mike Fitzpatrick, old PA-08)
PA-05 (OPEN/Pat Meehan, old PA-07)
PA-06 (Ryan Costello, old PA-06)
PA-07 (OPEN/Charlie Dent, old PA-15)
PA-10 (Scott Perry, old PA-04)
PA-17 (Keith Rothfus, old PA-12)
PA-11 (Lloyd Smucker, old PA-16) has gone from light Red to implacably Republican
Overall, the Court’s Map is an enormous Victory for Democracy over one of the most extreme Partisan Gerrymanders. Consequently, it gives Democratic Candidates a much fairer chance to win a Majority of Seats when they Win a Majority of Votes Statewide. Notably, that did not happen in 2012, when the GOP’s Now-Invalidated Gerrymander produced a 13-to-Five Republican Majority even though Democratic Candidates for the House received more Votes.
The New Map means that there are now 25 Republican-held House Seats Nationally that Hillary Clinton carried, up from 23. That’s one more than the number of Republican Seats Democrats would need to Flip in order to Regain Control over the House in November.
UPDATE
Republican Members of Congress and Pennsylvania Republican Lawmakers planned to Sue in Federal Court as early as Wednesday, February 21st, in a bid to Block the Map expected to improve Democrats' chances at Erasing the GOP's U.S. House Majority.
NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker
No comments:
Post a Comment