Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Eight Types of GOP Districts to Watch in 2018 Congressional House Races

There are probably 70 or so Districts where Democrats have a better than 10% chance to Win if the National Political environment is especially favorable to them.

To Retake the House, Democrats will try to put as many of these Seats into play as possible, and hope to end up with the 24 they need.

To illustrate, we’ve divvied up Republican House Districts into Eight Groups to keep an eye on. The Groups aren’t strictly based on Competitiveness.

Within Groups, some Members are far more Vulnerable than others. There are a few Districts that don’t fit neatly into any of the Groups, and there are a few that fit into several.

But the kinds of Opportunities and Challenges facing Democrats or Republicans in each Group are pretty similar.

Eight Types of Republican-Held Districts

Well-Educated Sun Belt with 10 Seats - Martha McSally [AZ-2]; Ed Royce [CA-39]; Mimi Walters [CA-45]; Dana Rohrabacher [CA-48]; Darrell Issa [CA-49]; Karen Handel [GA-6]; Kevin Yoder [KS-3]; John Culberson [TX-7]; Pete Sessions [TX-32]; Barbara Comstock[VA-10]

Diverse Sun Belt with 5 Seats - Jeff Denham [CA-10]; David Valadao [CA-21]; Carlos Curbelo [FL-26]; Ileana Ros-Lehtinen [FL-27]; Will Hurd [TX-23]

Suburban Stragglers with 7 Seats - Steve Knight [CA-25]; Dave Trott [MI-11]; Jason Lewis [MN-2]; Don Bacon [NE-2]; Tom MacArthur [NJ-3]; Leonard Lance [NJ-7]; Brian Fitzpatrick [PA-8]

Suburban Survivors with 9 Seats - Mike Coffman [CO-6]; Peter Roskam [IL-6]; Erik Paulsen [MI-3]; Frank LoBiondo [NJ-2]; Rodney Frelinghuysen [NJ-11]; John Katko [NY-24]; Ryan Costello [PA-6]; Pat Meehan [PA-7]; Dave Reichert [WA-8]

White Working Class with 10 Seats - Rod Blum [IA-1]; David Young [IA-3]; Mike Bost [IL-12]; Rodney Davis [IL-13]; Lynn Jenkins [KS-2]; Bruce Poliquin, [ME-2]; Mike Bishop [MI-8]; John Faso [NY-19]; Claudia Tenney [NY-22]; Lloyd Smucker [PA-16]

Weaker Than They Should Be with 11 Seats - Don Young [AK-1]; Martha Roby [AL-2]; Ron DeSantis [FL-6]; Trey Hollingsworth [IN-9]; Ron Estes [KS-4]; Jack Bergman [MI-1]; Greg Gianforte [MT-1]; Jim Renacci [OH-16]; Ralph Norman [SC-4]; Mia Love [UT-4]; Alex Mooney [WV-2]

Gerrymander Breakdown with 13 Seats - Mario Diaz-Balart [FL-25]; Rob Woodall [GA-7]; Randy Hultgren [IL-14]; Mike Bishop [MI-8]; George Holding [NC-2]; Robert Pittenger [NC-9]; Ted Budd [NC-13]; Steve Chabot [OH-1]; Ted Poe [TX-2]; Lamar Smith [TX-21]; Pete Olsen [TX-22]; Kenny Marchant [TX-24]; Dave Brat [VA-7]

Perhaps Still Vulnerable? with 17 Seats - French Hill [AR-2]; Scott Tipton [CO-3]; Dennis Ross [FL-15]; Jackie Walorski [IN-2]; Andy Barr [KY-6]; Fred Upton [MI-6]; Tim Walberg [MI-7]; Lee Zeldin [NY-1]; Dan Donovan [NY-11]; Elise Stefanik [NY-21]; Tom Reed [NY-23]; Scott Taylor [VA-2]; Tom Garrett [VA-5]; Jaime Herrera [WA-3]; Paul Ryan [WI-1]; Sean Duffy [WI-7]; Mike Gallagher [WI-8]

Rest with 159 Seats

The First Five Groups, 41 Districts in all, are the likeliest to be Competitive. They correspond pretty closely with the Races Rated as Competitive by Organizations like the Cook Political Report.

It’s a Diverse Group of Districts, ranging from Well-Entrenched Republicans in Democratic-Leaning, Well-Educated Suburbs to newly Elected Republicans in White Working-Class areas.

Over all, there are a lot of Districts where Democrats have a Real Chance but probably currently aren’t favored to Win. They should expect a lot of Close-but-No-Cigar showings, just like this Spring’s Special Elections. The question is whether they can cobble together the 24 Seats they need to Retake the House.

But the Trump Administration and Republicans in both Houses will have many chances to fumble the ball by the first State Primaries.

CLICK HERE for detailed information about The Fair Representation Act.

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