Trump has a new enemy in the fight for National Convention Delegates: the alphabet. Trump is well-positioned for a resounding victory in West Virginia’s May 10 Primary, but his win will be accompanied by a delegate selection process stacked in favor of people with last names at the beginning of the alphabet, rather than his most committed supporters.
It’s a quirk of West Virginia’s complex delegate election process that has the Trump campaign on red alert and seems likely to leave the him with weaker support at the National Convention than he’s expected to earn in the State’s Primary. It’s yet another convoluted Primary system likely to add fuel to Trump’s complaints that the rules of the Republican nomination process are rigged.
“Not even Einstein could easily understand the selection process today,” said Mike Stuart, a former West Virginia Republican Party head and Chairman of Trump’s campaign in the state. “The delegate selection system is intentionally complicated, making it extremely hard for voters to control the commitment of delegates to any particular candidate,” Stuart said. “I think the selection process for delegates in West Virginia not only is bad. It may be the worst in the country.”
It’s also bad for Trump because even if he wins the popular vote in a landslide, how that support translates into delegates depends on his supporters’ ability to navigate a complicated, arcane and confusing voting system, the results of which are an open question.
West Virginia's Republican ballot is a six-page form that places the delegate elections behind dozens of State Legislative and County races. Some voters, West Virginia GOP insiders said, stop voting before they make it to the delegates. But getting there is the easy part.
More than 220 people are running for 22 statewide slots as Convention delegates. On the ballot, they’re divided based on the candidates they support and then listed alphabetically. There are 31 for Trump, 36 for Cruz and 10 for John Kasich, who failed to file a full slate of delegates. A fourth list includes 27 “uncommitted” candidates, and there are also lists of would-be delegates for candidates who have already dropped out.
Voters wishing to select a full slate of Trump delegates can choose up to 22 of them, though if they inadvertently select 23 or more, all of their choices are thrown out. They must also be aware of a new rule to prohibit more than two delegates from residing in a single county, and seven from a single Congressional district, a stipulation that isn’t mentioned on the ballot.
Yet nine of the first 22 names on Trump’s list are from populous Kanawha County, where Charleston, the State Capital, is located. And if Trump voters pick them all, seven would be automatically disqualified and replaced by delegates who fit the criteria.
“Unfortunately, this will be a very random process with so many candidates for so few spots,” said Bob Miller, Jr., an uncommitted contender. Traditionally, voters have simply selected the first 22 names associated with the candidate they support, and previous delegations have been heavy with surnames starting with A through C as a result. “It’s really luck of the draw,” said Bob Adams, a Cruz supporter running to become a statewide delegate. “I’m the very first Cruz delegate that anyone in the state will see on the ballot.”
Stuart said the Trump campaign has a legal team ready to contest questionable results and will work overtime to ensure that voters know which Trump delegate candidates to back when they go to the polls.
Frustration is mounting in part because Trump’s allies are so bullish about his prospects in the West Virginia Primary. The state’s coal-powered 3rd Congressional district is the heart of Appalachia, abutting counties in Kentucky, Virginia and Ohio that voted overwhelmingly for Trump in earlier primaries. The only recent public poll last month showed Trump with double the support of his closest rival, Ted Cruz.
Indeed, West Virginia is shaping up to be Trump’s strongest state in a potentially bleak May, when Midwestern states like Indiana and Nebraska threaten to deliver a truckload of delegates to Cruz, his top rival for the GOP nomination. But if West Virginia’s onerous delegate process leaves Trump with less support than he earns, it lowers his odds of winning the nomination on a first vote at the Convention and complicates his chances on a second.
This year, a new restriction that isn’t mentioned on the ballot could cause even greater turmoil for Trump. State Republicans decided to require geographic diversity among delegates, no more than seven statewide delegates may hail from a single Congressional district, and no more than two can come from a single County. Yet the first 22 names on Trump’s list include nine from populous Kanawha County. If voters follow traditional patterns, seven of them would be ineligible to go to the Convention.
While Trump is at the mercy of a difficult ballot list, Cruz has installed a failsafe: he has recruited candidates with widespread name recognition. “As an elected official and former Congressional candidate my name is relatively well known especially within the district,” said Marty Gearhart, who’s running to be a Cruz delegate from the state’s 3rd Congressional District, thus I think I have a good chance of being elected. I have been a delegate to the last two conventions.”
Among Cruz’s top allies is Alex Mooney, the Congressman from the Second Congressional District, who Chairs Cruz’s West Virginia campaign. Mooney is running for a statewide delegate slot and will be the 24th name on the pro-Cruz list. Cruz also has support from the state’s National GOP Committeewoman Melody Potter, one of three automatic delegates.
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