Britain's May 7 election is on course to be historic, but historic in a confusing and unpredictable way that may not yield a clear winner. In fact, Britain faces the most uncertain election in a generation, chalked up to a mix of changing demographics, economic worries, the ability of smaller parties to reach new voters, online media, and a general indifference with politics-as-usual. There is plenty riding on the outcome including the future of Britain's welfare state, whether the UK remains in the European Union, current PM Cameron has promised a 2017 referendum on the matter, and how immigrants are integrated into society.
To understand why these elections matter for Britain, Europe and the democratic world, here are the issues:
1. Great Voter Indecision. As many as 40 per cent of British voters are undecided or could switch parties on election day, according to a ComRes survey, published at the end of March. Neither Conservatives nor Labour can expect to garner more than 35 per cent of the votes, leaving both short of a 300-seat majority in a parliament made up of 650 seats. The election is coming at a time when the electorate has changed, too, with an estimated one in 10 voters born abroad. That has elevated the importance of smaller parties such as the Scottish National Party, and the anti-immigrant UK Independence Party, which have vastly different visions for Britain.
2. Many Choices. The slew of choices is forcing candidates out of their media comfort zones and into the public's eye in new ways. PM David Cameron has had to compete for voters' attention in the same fora and social media realms as his opponent, Labour leader Ed Miliband. This election cycle has featured a moderated, televised debate between candidates, televised question-and-answer sessions, and debates between opposition parties. Online, viral campaigns supporting candidates have taken on a life of their own.
3. Much Noise. Amid the noise, Labour Party leader Ed Miliband has gone through something of a transformation. Long considered the nerdier, less-electable brother of politician David Miliband, in 2010 Ed assumed the leadership of the party after it was defeated by the Conservatives in a general election. Since then, he has been largely written off as a wonk holding the seat of Labour leadership until someone more electable came along. In the intervening years, Britain has seen the rise of the anti-immigrant parties and the punishing aftermath of the financial crisis, leaving voters wary of more economic pain. There is also Labour disquiet over the economic centrist legacy of Tony Blair's New Labor.
4. Miliband Reconsidered. The genuine uncertainty about the direction of Britain, along with the decline of the traditional media's kingmaking power has allowed voters to reconsider Ed Miliband for PM even as his image is lampooned. The son of Jewish émigré parents, he has been able to speak to fears of economic inequality in a country that is still the world's 5th largest economy. The clashing visions of Britain's economy have even started to make markets nervous.
5. Forecast: But even if Ed Miliband fares well, a hung parliament, or an election that results in no single outright winner, is expected. That means deal-making between parties with markedly different political agendas would begin. How different? UKIP has ridden a wave of immigration-phobia and anti-European Union sentiment to shake up the political agenda. This is drawing voters away from the Conservative Party in England. The Scottish National Party, which could absorb Labour votes, could seek more powers for Scotland following the failed independence referendum in 2014. The Liberal Democrats are expected to form a coalition with the Conservatives if they win, although the party's leader Nick Clegg has said he's also open to talks with Labour.
6. Small Party Sway. The end result is that no matter who wins, the big parties are growing more reliant on smaller parties and independently-minded voters. As elsewhere, this tendency is being driven by internet-powered social media that favors the edges rather than the center of the political spectrum.
7. Conclusion Confusion. And if it's a hung parliament, what then? A prime minister can stay in office only as along as it is clear that he can command a majority in parliament. The parties have two weeks to negotiate a working majority before parliament sits again. If a working coalition can't be formed, another election could be called in a few months' time.
UK Parties in Parliment
Conservative and Unionist - 174,000 members
Labour - 189,531 members
Democratic Unionist - ?
Scottish National - 102,143 members
Sinn Fein - ?
Plaid Cymru Party of Wales - 8,000 members
UK Independence - 44,041 members
Alliance Party of Northern Island - ?
Green Party of Northern Ireland - 60,000 members
Respect Party - ?
NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker
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