The Independent View: States to Look at for 2016 Presidential Election

This post comes from an article in Politico by:

Larry J. Sabato is university professor of politics and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, which publishes the online, free Crystal Ball politics newsletter every Thursday, and a regular columnist for Politico Magazine.

Kyle Kondik is managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan political newsletter produced by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. He also directs the center’s Washington, D.C., office.

Geoffrey Skelley is associate editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

As the country has become more divided and polarized, the number of swing states has steadily shrunk. In 2000, Just 12 states were decided by five points or less. That number contracted to just four states in 2012.

These seven states start as the only obvious toss-ups on their first 2016 Electoral Map:

Colorado - 9 votes
Florida - 29 votes
Iowa - 6 votes
New Hampshire - 4 votes
Nevada - 6 votes
Ohio - 18 votes
Virgina - 13 votes
Total - 85 votes

This is effectively the same map of the 2012 cycle.

There are two predictions they can make at this point.

First, if Republicans lose either Florida or Ohio, the nominee has no realistic path to victory. Both states are typically at least slightly more Republican than the nation as a whole. If GOP voters are thinking strategically during the nominating process, they will pick a candidate with a profile appealing to Sunshine and Buckeye state residents.

Second, while there are credible Democratic paths to the White House without Virginia, anything other than a win or a loss by just a percent or two in the Old Dominion will signal the Democrat’s downfall. Virginia was slightly more Democratic than the nation in 2012 for the first time since Franklin Roosevelt’s era, and population trends that are increasingly favorable to Democrats are continuing.

So if you plan to go where the action will be, you can already safely book those autumn 2016 travel packages to Columbus, Denver, Des Moines, Las Vegas, Manchester, Richmond and Tampa.