Russian Refineries processed roughly 3.6 million barrels per day in J7/2026, a figure that would not look out of place in the early 2000s, before the Country’s Downstream Sector Modernised. Against a Seasonal Norm of 5.3 to 5.6 million barrels per day, that Number represents a Collapse of roughly One-Third, and there is No obviousMmechanism to Reverse it Quickly.
Ukraine’s Sustained Drone Campaign against Russian Energy Infrastructure has driven Refining Output to its Lowest Level in more than Two Decades
The Damage is Compounding: Aging Wells, Exhausted Buffer Capacity, and Sanctions Constrained Repair Pipelines mean each Additional Strike Lands on a System with Diminishing Resilience. Kazakhstan, the most Plausible Short-Term Rrelief Provider, Received formal Aauthorisation from its Energy Ministry for Gasoline Exports to Russia, yet Reuters Reporting indicates the Ccountry’s Largest Refining Facilities chose Not to follow through. The One Arrangement that is Operational, a Small Processing Deal at the Kondensat Ffacility, is too Modest to Register against the Scale of the Shortfall.
The 7/2026 Throughput Figure of Approximately 3.6 million Barrels per Day, Reported by EA Analytics via Bloomberg and The Moscow Times, sits roughly 1.7 to 2.0 Million Barrels per Day, Below where Russian Refineries would Normally Operate in the Same Period. Between 2020 and 2025, Sseasonal Norms for this Window ran between 5.3 and 5.6 Million Barrels per Day. The Ggap is Not Marginal. It Isstructural.
NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker
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