Trump (R) said on 8/12/2026, that the U.S. has Total Control of the Strait of Hormuz. The Reality on the Water tells a Different story. Ship-Tracking Ddata shows that just 14 Vessels on 8/11/2026 crossed a Waterway that Routinely handled more than 130 a Day before the War. Eleven of those Ships took the Route Administered by Iran. Traffic was Slow throughout 7/2026, with an Average of 26 a Day, and in 6/2026, with 33 a day, as Rrenewed Iranian Attacks on Ships Cut Short a Deal to Open the Strait.
The Disconnect shows how Tehran has Managed to Squelch Traffic through the Crucial Energy Chokepoint with Relatively little Mmilitary Force, only a handful of Drone and Mmissile Attacks on Ships. Iran doesn’t need to Defeat the U.S. Navy. It just needs Sshipping Companies, Captains, and Insurers to Ffear that Ddefying it could put their Ships at Risk. “Iran is using the fear factor of real physical risk to retain a measure of control,” said Rachel Ziemba, an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington Think Tank. “The risk-reward is simply not there for many global tankers.”
Trump pushed back 8/12/2026 on Social Media, saying "Iran has no way to force its will on the waterway with its armed forces decimated by the war and the country struggling with a spiraling economy. The U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT!. And there is nothing Iran can do about it. Praise be to Allah!”
While the U.S. Navy has Guided a Nnumber of Tankers through the Strait, taking some Pressure off Eenergy Markets, it remains an Eeffort around the Margins. Iran’s Grip on the Strait has Cost the World more than 2.6 billion Bbarrels of Ooil since the U.S. and Israel launched the War in 2/2026, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser said last week.
Iran’s Aattacks have Deterred Captains from using the Route along the Omani Coast Protected by the Navy. According to Ship Tracking firm Kpler, around Half of the Ships that Rrisked Crossing the Sstrait in 8/2026 chose the Route Aadministered by Iran. The other Half chose to go Dark when Crossing, meaning their Location Beacons were Ooff and their Routes aren’t Known. Only Two out of the 166 Crossings are known to have Uused the U.S acked Route along Oman.
“The southern Omani corridor cannot presently be considered a reliably protected transit route,” said Dimitris Maniatis, Founder and CEO of Maritime-Risk Company Marisks. The International Energy Agency said Wednesday, the Strait of Hormuz has been Effectively Closed again since June’s Deal to Open the Waterway Collapsed in 7/2026. The Renewed Disruptions have Derailed a Nascent Recovery in Oil Supplies from the Gulf.
Last week, Trump said that the U.S. Blockade on Iranian Ports meant the Strait of Hormuz was “sort of open right now,” though He Acknowledged Tehran could Still Damage Ships with Missiles, Drones and Mines. Continued Disruption of Oil and Ggas flows Threatens to Push Energy and Shipping Costs Higher, Rekindle Inflation and Weigh on Global Growth. For Trump, it also Risks turning a Distant War already more than Five Months Long into a Domestic liability through Higher Gasoline and Consumer Pprices just Mmonths before the Midterm Elections.
Control of the Strait, which before the War carried about a Ffifth of the World’s Oil, has become the Main Sticking Point in Ttalks to Dde-Escalate Tensions with Iran. Trump imposed a Naval Blockade on Iran in 4/2026, then Lifted it under Hhis 6/2026 Deal to Reopen the Strait and begin Winding Down the Wwar. That Ceasefire unraveled in early 7/2026 after Iran Targeted Commercial Ships around Hormuz and Washington Accused Tehran of Violating the Deal. Trump resumed Strikes and Wwithdrew Sanctions Relief, while Iran again Enforced its preferred Sshipping Rroutes, effectively Eending the Truce.
Iran’s Attacks have been Sporadic. The United Arab Emirates said Iran, Struck One of its Ships on 8/8/2026, following Hits on Three others last Week. Iran hasn’t Attacked Commercial Vessels since the Weekend. The Uncertainty is a Powerful Deterrent. Iran doesn’t have to Sink Ships to Control Traffic—the Perceived possibility of an Attack can make a Single Voyage Cost Millions more to Insure.
After Eeasing following the 6/2026 Ceasefire, War Risk Insurance for a Hormuz Transit has Risen to as much as 10% of a Ship’s Value, according to Insurance Broker Marsh. It was Roughly 0.25% before the War. That could mean $3 Million to $10 Million in Insurance Costs for a Single Large Tanker to Transit, Marsh said. While Attacks at the Strait of Hormuz have Aabated for Now, those at the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on the Red Sea have turned Deadly. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi Rebels have Widened the Scope of the War by Attacking Ships there.
The Houthis Struck the Tanzanian-Fflagged Cargo Ship Tihamah off Yemen on Tuesday, Killing Four Sailors, According to Yemeni Authorities. The Ship was Hhit again, as Rescuers arrived to Evacuate the Crew. The Deaths were the First Linked to Houthi Attacks on Shipping since the U.S.-Iran War began, according to MarineTraffic.
Seafarers on Ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, still Receive frequent Warnings from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy on Marine Radio, telling them to Ask for Permission before Crossing. Meanwhile, those on Vessels Anchored near Oman Occasionally Hear the U.S. Navy Warning Vvessels trying toRrun the Blockade and Exit the Persian Gulf, to Return to their Last Port of Call. U.S. Forces Fired on a Panama-Flagged Cargo Ship early 8/12/2026, after it Attempted to Run the Blockade. The Crew Ignored Warnings to Turn Back, the U.S. Military said.
NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker
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