Eastern Europe Joining Ukraine

As Putin tries to Prop-Up a Failing Invasion of Ukraine, He Orders the Launch of Drones. Not All of those Drones are aimed at Ukraine. Many have been Ending-Up in NATO Airspace, and that’s just the Tip of the Iceberg of Russia’s Hybrid War Strategy. Now, Eastern Europe has had enough. Putin has Crossed an Unforgivable Line, and Preparations are Underway for a Face-Off. Alliances are being formed. Plans are being made. And the Message being sent to Putin is Clear: Get out of Europe or be Crushed.

And the Nation delivering that Message the Loudest right now, is One that you might Not Expect: Bulgaria. On 3/7/2026, the News Broke that there had been yet another Russian Drone Incursion into European Airspace. This time, the Target was Sofia. The Capital of Bulgaria was Forced to Temporarily Shut Down its Vasil Levski Airport after Security Systems identified a Drone Hovering in the Vicinity of the Airport.

Bulgarian Authorities were Quick to Respond, as Air Traffic Control and Border Police Co-Ordinated to Reroute Planes and Ensure the Safety of Everybody at the Airport. The Incident was Brief. The Drone was soon Neutralized. And though Bulgaria was Cagey about Revealing where it believed the Drone had come from, with some even suggesting that an Iranian Drone could have Traveled all the way into its Territory, there is really only One likely Culprit.

Russia seems to be at it again, and Bulgaria isn’t taking this Latest Incursion Lying-Down. It knows that what it Experienced in early 3/2026, is the Tip of a Hybrid War Strategy that Runs much Deeper and has been going on for far Longer than Many in Europe want to Admit. The Reality is that Russia is already at War with Europe, just Not in a Conventional Way. Bulgaria is the Latest Victim.

Before that, there’s Bulgaria’s Response. The Country has gone a lot further than Shutting Down an Airport for a few hours. In the wake of the Drone Incursion, Bulgaria has been Busy building Alliances and Covering its Bases. Still Wary about the possibility of Iran’s Involvement, the Nation has Announced heightened Co-Operation with Greece, which is a NATO Ally and another Country on the Eastern Front that is very Aware of how Dangerous Hybrid Warfare can be.

Greece will now Deploy F-16 Fighter Jets and a Patriot Air Defense system on its Own Territory to help Guard the Airspace of its Neighbor to the North, following a Direct Request from Sofia. Bulgaria has also Rea-Firmed its Aupport of the PURL Initiative, through which EU and NATO Member Countries can Purchase Weapons from the U,S. for use by Ukraine in its Defense of its Territory against Russia. What we’re seeing here is a Nation that has been Shocked into Action.

And here’s where its response gets really Serious. Beyond its Recommitment to PURL, Bulgaria has also Blared a Message to Putin that his hybrid warfare tactics not only don’t scare Bulgaria but have forced the type of response that is the exact opposite of what Putin wants to Achieve. Far from Panicking or Backing-Down, Bulgaria has Signed a 10-year Ddefense Ddeal with Ukraine. Announced on 3/30/2026, the Deal will see Bulgaria, which Le Monde Characterizes as a Major Arms Manufacturer, Cooperate with Ukraine on the Production of Drones and Several other Types of Weapons.

It Opens the Door for Joint Production on both Bulgarian and Ukrainian Territory, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has Aannounced, and the Length of the Deal is Designed to make it possible for the Two Nations to Fully Systematize their Approach. That may indeed be the Case. However, a Decade-Long Deal is also a Signal to Putin that Bulgaria believes Ukraine will Remain a Sovereign State for the Long Term. For that to be the Case, Russia Must Lose in Ukraine.

And here’s where its Response gets really Serious. Beyond its Recommitment to PURL, Bulgaria has also blared a Message to Putin that His Hybrid Warfare Tactics not Only don’t Scare Bulgaria but have Forced the Type of Response that is the Eexact Opposite of what Putin wants to Achieve. Far from Panicking or Backing Down, Bulgaria has Signed a 10-year Defense Deal with Ukraine. Announced on 3/30/2026, the Deal will see Bulgaria, as a Major Arms Manufacturer, Co-Operate with Ukraine on the Production of Drones and several other types of Weapons.

It Opens the Door for Joint Production on both Bulgarian and Ukrainian Territory, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has Announced, and the Length of the Deal is Designed to make it Possible for the Ttwo Nations to Fully Systematize their Approach. That may indeed be the Case. However, a Decade-Long Deal is also a Signal to Putin that Bulgaria Believes Ukraine will Remain a Sovereign State for the Long Term. For that to be the Case, Russia must Lose in Ukraine.

Putin is Watching as a Former Member of the Soviet Union has Responded to His Hybrid Warfare Strategy by Strengthening its Ties with the One Country from which Russia wants Bulgaria to keep Away. Partnerships between Defense Companies are going to be Formed. Cooperation between Bulgaria and Ukraine is going to take Place at the Governmental Level.

Russia and its Allies thought Sending a Drone into Sofia would Divide and Intimidate. All that Putin has Succeeded in doing is being the Catalyst for a New and Stronger Alliance that Stands against Russia. Right now, Europe needs that Sort of Alliance. NATO needs it, too. A Drone over Sofia is just One of Many examples of Russia Being at War with Europe.

The Center for European Policy Analysis, (CEPA), said in a 3/31/2026 Report that what we’re seeing All throughout Europe Right now is a Ahadow War that seems to have No End. Europe, it says, is No Longer merely a Witness to the War in Ukraine and Russia’s Acts of Aggression. It has become a Target of a Systematic Shadow Campaign in which Russia is Attempting to Dismantle the European Structure and Sow the Seeds of Chaos within the Nations that it Believes Pose the Greatest Threat to Putin’s Desire to Create a New Version of the Russian Empire.

Missiles aren’t Flying, and Russian Forces aren’t Invading the Rest of Europe, as they are in Ukraine. Sabotage, Surveillance, Cybercrime, and Aerial Incursions are the Weapons of this Shadow War, and it is a Fight that Russia has Waged since at Least 2022, and One to which Europe needs to Wake-Up to the Realities.

Consistent Escalation of this Shadow War is what takes Russia’s actions from isolated tactics to a cohesive strategy. Russia is taking advantage of the typical European deterrence models, which CEPA says presume that an adversary will weigh risks and adjust its actions as a direct response to the likely punishment that will be meted out.

Russia isn’t that type of Adversary. “Russian intelligence and security services are rewarded for initiative rather than restraint. Operations need not achieve specific strategic objectives in order to be validated; they need only demonstrate action,” CEPA notes. That’s a problem for all of Europe. Russia’s system rewards escalation, and Europe’s deterrence method doesn’t punish that escalation enough to get Russia to stop.

What has developed from this mismatch of military policy is a one-sided non-traditional war in which Europe is on the losing side. Bulgaria knows this. It’s just seen an example of Russia’s strategy in Sofia, and it’s responding by strengthening its borders against aerial threats and signing agreements with Ukraine that will ultimately serve to strengthen the traditional front that Europe has against Putin’s aggression.

But for Russia, its shadow war breaks down into four categories of attack, all of which have been on the rise since Putin launched the Ukraine invasion. Those categories are simple: Proxies and infiltration, undersea and energy, aerial incursions, and cyber operations.

Combined, they are the spears of Russia’s shadow war, and a drone incursion into Bulgaria is just the tip of a massive iceberg that Europe needs to get busy melting We’ll start with the proxies and infiltration tactics.

Right under the collective European nose, Russia has built a vast network of proxies and criminal enterprises that operate within the territory of European nations. Arson, intimidation, sabotage, and Surveillance are the weapons chosen by these Proxy Groups, and they have been very effective.

By using what amounts to Third-Party Actors, Russia is able to claim it has No knowledge of Incidents that just so happen to serve its Ends, which in turn renders the European Deterrence Model that We mentioned completely Moot. How can you deter an enemy that isn’t fighting by traditional rules?

There are more examples of this Proxy and Infiltration approach than are possible to count. Chatham House says that there are now Cases of People in the U.K. who are allegedly working for Russian intelligence. Germany has Arrested Iindividuals on suspicion of planning Attacks on Russia’s behalf. A spate of Railway Derailments in Sweden had Russia’s Fingerprints All over it.

And in Estonia, which is Key to the entire Eastern Shield that NATO has Erected against Russia, Security Services are noting intense efforts by Russian Actors to Recruit Local citizens to their Cause, likely with the Intention of Creating a Force capable of Attacking the Government. This is Russia attempting to Wear-Down Europe as a Collective. The Sabotage conducted by Proxies, Infiltrators, and Turncoats is Designed to Create Division and Confusion in the Countries that are being Targeted.

There is a Pro-Russian Contingent inside Bulgaria that is Decrying the Agreement that the Country just Signed with Ukraine. There are Pro-Kremlin now. Putin’s Machinations are made Clear here, and that Sort of Division is the Reason why there was a Four-Fold Increase in Russian Sabotage Operations across Europe in 2024. Speaking of Sabotage, Russia has Turned its Roving Shadow War Eye to some of the most Important Undersea Infrastructure that keeps Europe Running. That’s the Second Part of the Four-Part Shadow War Plan.

CEPA notes that the Undersea Cables and other Energy Infrastructure that Russia has been Targeting throughout Europe are Vulnerable due to how Essential they are to both Civilian and Military Life. Again, Russia isn’t taking the same approach in Europe as it is in Ukraine. Missiles and Drones aren’t Striking Power Plants. Russia’s Approach is far Sneakier, as it looks to Exploit Sea and Ocean Wide Gaps in Europe’s Defenses to Degrade Communications and Create Confusion in Military Dtructures throughout Europe.

Ships, sometimes belonging to Russia and at other times seemingly Innocuous “civilian” vessels, are being caught Lingering around the Vast Undersea cable Networks that keep Europe Ticking. By 4/17/2026, there had been at least Two Incidents of Undersea Sabotage during the Previous 18 months in the Gulf of Finland Alone. NATO’s Eastern Flank was again the Target.

The Baltic Sea has been even more of a Target. Between 2022 and April 2025, there had been Six suspected Sabotage Incidents in that Sea, and 11 known Undersea Cables had been Cut or Otherwise Damaged since 2023. As with its Proxy and Infiltration Methods, this is All being Done in a way that Provides Plausible Deniability for Russia.

Everybody, especially in Eastern Europe, knows who is Behind these Acts of Underwater Sabotage. But without Incontrovertible Proof, and with Russia knowing just how Far to Push before it Crosses the Line into Conventional Acts of war, there can be Nno Real Reprisal. Russia is Finding the Communications and Energy Cracks in Europe’s Undersea Cable Empire. And it’s also Pushing Buttons and Testing Boundaries in the Air.

The drone that entered Sofia’s airspace is just one of a multitude of examples that we’ve seen of what appear to be Russian assets entering the airspace of NATO nations to cause chaos. And often, these incursions have timing that indicates that Putin is actively trying to poke the NATO bear, likely because he is confident that immediate reprisals against Russian territory won’t happen.

Take the announcement of Operation Eastern Sentry on September 12, 2025, as an example. That operation was announced following a Russian drone incursion into Poland. But less than 24 hours after the announcement of the operation was made, a Russian drone entered Romanian airspace. And less than a week later, a trio of Russian MiG-31 fighter jets flew into Estonian airspace and lingered for 12 minutes, purposefully ignoring all requests for information, until NATO had to scramble jets of its own to escort the Russian fighters away from the Eastern flank.

Since then, we’ve seen Belarusian weather balloons fly over Lithuania, Russian drones encroach on the territory of U.S. bases in Estonia, and many more. In 2025 alone, The Conversation reports, Russian aerial assets tested NATO airspace 18 times. That was three times the number of incursions recorded in 2024, and this latest drone in Bulgarian airspace seems to be an indicator that Putin isn’t going to be abandoning the third part of Russia’s shadow war strategy any time soon.

Why would he? Russia is mostly getting away with all of this. At least, that’s what Putin thinks. Finally, there are the cyber operations. Russian cyberattacks have been evolving. Where they once targeted information technology on a general level, they have since become more focused on operational systems, such as energy grids and transportation networks. Disinformation is also a key tool for Russia on the cyber front. By flooding social media with bots and false actors, Russia is able to manipulate what many use as one of their primary sources of information to influence elections and guide public sentiment outside of its own territory.

The irony here is that Russia is cracking down on open internet access internally, even as it takes advantage of that same sort of access to propagate Putin’s agenda elsewhere. King’s College London highlights how pervasive these cyber efforts are. It says that between November 2023 and November 2024, it recorded 505 incidents of foreign information manipulation and interference. Those incidents involved 25 platforms, targeted 90 countries, involved 322 organizations, involved 38,000 channels, and led to the production of 68,000 pieces of content.

Ukraine, Germany, France, and Moldova were among the most targeted countries, and these social media-based operations show us that Russia’s cyber war isn’t just about shutting down systems. They’re about influencing opinion. Again, that word “division” comes to the fore. Through its cyber campaigns, Russia can hurt its targets directly and create the sorts of polarized political atmospheres that we see in places like the U.S. and the U.K. right now.

Europe is trying to fight back on this front. In December 2025, the European Council announced the sanctioning of two entities and 12 individuals who had been involved in information manipulation and cyberattacks. Important moves, yes. But nowhere near at the scale needed to stop Russia’s cyber exploits.

And that’s the big problem that Europe faces. While Russia wages its shadow war, many in Europe either don’t really know what’s coming or they mischaracterize the shadow war as something it isn’t. Within many European countries, the types of sabotage and cybercrimes that Russia commits are often dealt with via criminal and civilian law enforcement frameworks. Cable sabotage is often treated as if it’s the result of maritime accidents.

Putin knows all of this, which is why Russia gets away with so much of what it does on the hybrid front. What Russia does isn’t treated as repeated acts of war. They’re crimes for which Russia claims it can’t be held to account, and nothing can be done about any of it. Even on the military front, it could be argued that the EU and NATO haven’t been doing enough to stop Russia. Euromaidan Press reports that Bruno Kahl, who was the head of the German Federal Intelligence Service, predicts that Russia may attack a NATO nation by the end of the 2020s. Others, including Carsten Breuer, who is the General Inspector of the German military, have made similar claims.

Warning after warning is ringing out in Europe that traditional deterrence isn’t working. And yet, Europe still isn’t ready for the shadow war to transform into a conventional one. According to Euromaidan Press, Europe may not be ready until 2035, five years, at best, after many NATO generals warn that Russia will go on the attack. At least, some of Europe won’t be ready. On the continent’s eastern flank, we’re starting to see preparations accelerate. Bulgaria is the perfect example. It’s seeking assistance from Greece and Ukraine to help it combat the inevitable Russian threat. According to RFU News, several other European countries are doing the same.

For over four years, Ukraine has defended itself brilliantly against the type of campaign that Putin may intend to wage in Europe. Ukraine now has a stronger defense industrial base that has developed a range of counter-drone technologies, such as interceptor drones and electronic warfare capabilities. Bulgaria is now going to benefit from those technologies.

So are Denmark, Finland, and Latvia, all of which have signed partnerships with Ukraine under the Build for Ukraine initiative. We’re starting to see the integration of Ukraine’s know-how into Eastern Europe. That may well be the perfect counter to Putin’s shadow war. An approach that is meant to divide is instead starting to create a level of unity within Europe, at least in the eastern and Nordic regions, which is the perfect counter to everything that Russia is doing. Preparations for war are already well underway in many of the eastern territories. Bulgaria is only now waking up to the threat that Russia poses and is starting to prepare. In Latvia, a NATO battlegroup that is anchored by a German brigade is being formed and will be ready by 2027. Poland has emerged as one of the strongest European nations. It spent 4.5% of its gross domestic product on defense in 2025, which is the highest percentage of any NATO member, and 54% of its defense spending is devoted to building weapons rather than covering salaries and costs.

All three of the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have been investing heavily in border defenses, as has Poland. What we’re seeing here is the seeds being planted in Eastern Europe. While many on the continent dither and dally, seeming to be constantly unsure of how to respond to the shadow war even as generals warn that Russia is preparing to go further, the likes of Bulgaria, Poland, and the Baltic nations are getting ready for what they believe is to come.

You can throw Greece into that equation, too. Bulgaria is leaning on its neighbor for defense, after all. Cooperation between these nations and Ukraine is at an all-time high. Defenses are being set up, and the ringing alarm bells set off by the shadow war are being heeded. Eastern Europe is joining Ukraine. And it’s letting Putin know that the shadow war he’s waging isn’t intimidating them. They’re getting ready for a fight and, working alongside Ukraine, they’re ready to crush Russia’s leader and his ambitions of empire.

Of course, this All assumes that Russia will even have an Army left to Transform its Shadow War into a Conventional One. That is far from a Given, as Tens-of-Thousands of Putin’s Doldiers are being Torn-Up in Ukraine. Something is Wiping Out Russian Troops like never before in Ukraine, and that Spells Bad News for a Spring Offensive that was Supposed to Topple a Country that Shows No Signs of Relenting under Russian Pressure.










NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker