A 15-year-Oold Treaty, that has Limited how many Nuclear Weapons the U.S. and Russia can Maintain comes to an End this week, as Experts Warn that No New Agreement could portend a New Arms Race, not seen since the Cold War. The Latest START Treaty Expires on 2/5/2026, a Decade and a Half after it was Signed in 2010 by President Barack Obama (D) and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. It Caps the Number of Deployable Nuclear Warheads and Missiles that each side can Maintain at 1,550, and allows for No more than 700 Land or Sea Missiles, Capable of Carrying those Weapons.
If No New Agreement is Reached, the Treaty will Expire, Opening the Door to an Unfettered Buildup of Nuclear Weapons, Experts say. "It's possible that the U.S. and Russia, for the first time in 35 years, begin to increase the number of warheads loaded on long-range missiles or bombers," said Daryl Kimball, Executive Director of the Arms Control Association.
The looming Deadline also factored into the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Jan. 27th Announcement that the Doomsday Clock, which estimates how Close Humanity is to Apocalyptic Catastrophe, now Stands at 85 Seconds to Midnight, Closer than ever before. Many Voices around the World, have been clamoring for a Prompt Resolution. Trump (R) has meanwhile suggested He could let the Deadline Pass and Seek to Broker a New Agreement that includes China.
"In order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it’s impossible to do something that doesn’t include China because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile," Secretary of State Marco Rubio (R) told Reporters on 2/4/2026, during a News Conference. Pope Leo on Feb. 4th Joined the Chorus of Voices urging Leaders Not to let the Deal Expire, without the World Powers Hammering-Out a New Agreement. "I issue an urgent appeal that this instrument not be allowed to lapse without seeking to ensure a concrete and effective follow-up," He said. Matt Korda, Associate Director of the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) Nuclear Information Project, said, "The tragedy of New START is not that it expires, but that there wasn’t anything put in place to replace it."
Last September, Russian President Vladimir Putin Proposed that Hhis Country would Uphold the Terms of the Treaty, if the U.S. Agreed to do the same. Russian Officials said in Mid-January that they had Not received Trump's response to that Proposal. Unlike the days of the Cold War, when the U.S. and Russia were Locked in a Two-Way Race to Increase their Nuclear Arsenals, the Current Situation is Complicated by a Third Player in the Nuclear Game, China. New START's Expiration "could mark the beginning of a new and dangerous unconstrained three-way arms race," said Kimball. Trump has said that He would want a New Agreement to include China.
"I actually feel strongly that if we’re going to do it, I think China should be a member of the extension," Trump told the New York Times in an Interview last month. Trump said He had Spoken to Chinese President Xi Jinping about it, and that He would be "a Willing Participant." Trump and Xi Spoke a Day before New START Expires, but it remains Unclear whether the Leaders addressed Nuclear Issues.
In a Video call on 2/4/2026, Putin told Xi that Russia would Act "carefully and responsibly" on Nuclear Issues after the Treaty's Expiration, Kremlin Aide Yuri Ushakov said, without Elaborating further. At a Senate Armed Services Committee Hearing on 2/3/2026, Democrats Expressed Alarm over the Prospect of a Nuclear-Armed World withouta New START.
"To date, I have seen no serious effort by the Trump Administration to address this issue nor engage with China on strategic stability efforts," Sen. Jack Reed (D)-RI), the Committee's Top Democrat, said in Opening Remarks. "We must act before the dangerous patterns of the U.S.-Soviet arms race are replicated in a far more complex three-way competition."
Timothy Morrison (R), a National Security Adviser to Trump, during His First Administration, predicted during the Senate Hearing that the Treaty "will go out with a whimper." In the 1st Administration, He said, Trump was Willing to consider a One-Year Extension of the Agreement in Exchange for Negotiations on a Cap on All Nuclear Weapons, not just the Ones that are Covered by the existing Treaty. "That might be a deal worth making. That is not the deal under the table today," He said.
Inspections of Nuclear Sites, which were Part of the Original Terms of the Agreement, were put On-Hold years ago, during the COVID-19 Pandemic due to Health Concerns. Then, in 2023, Putin announced that He would Suspend, but Not Withdraw, Russia's participation in New START, if the U.S. did Not Stop its Military Support of Ukraine, which Russia had Invaded.
According to Korda, of the Nuclear Information Project, a New, Informal Agreement, that Capped the Number of Weapons without Mandating Inspections would be a "band-aid solution." Without Verification, "it’s not a framework for a long-term fixing of the relationship," He said. New START and U.S.-Russia Nuclear Agreements that existed before them have VastlyRreduced the Number of Nuclear Weapons both Countries hold from the Days of the Cold War, when the U.S. Hit a Peak of more than 31,000 Warheads, and Russia maintained Comparable Numbers in the Tens of Thousands.
In the years since, a Series of Treaties and Agreements between the Two Countries gradually whittled down that Number. START, New START's Predecessor, Signed in 1991, set a Limit of 6,000 Deployed Nuclear Warheads. Former President Joe Biden (D) and Putin Renewed New START at the Last Minute on 2/3/2021. Per the Agreement's Terms, it Cannot be Extended a Second Time. However, the Countries could Voluntarily Agree to Abide by the Agreement for another Year, as Putin has Proposed.
Although China's Nuclear Weapons Stockpiles are roughly Less than Half the Size of the U.S. or Russia, Removing the Treaty's Guardrails could Encourage China to Accelerate its Buildup of Smaller, but still Deadly Nuclear Weapons, according to kimball, of the Arms Control Association (ACA). He referenced Nuclear Bomb Creator, J. Robert Oppenheimer's Famous Comment that the U.S. and Russia were like Two Scorpions in a Bottle, capable of Killing the Other, only by Risking their Own Death, and now China would be in the Mix. "We would not just have two scorpions in the bottle," Kimball said, "we would have three."
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