As 2025 drew to a Close, Vladimir Putin tried to Sell the World a Story of Inevitability. Russian Officials announced the Capture of Cities they did Not Control, insisted that the Fall of the Donbas was just Weeks Away, and Framed their Battlefield Narrative to Influence U.S. and Western Negotiators. But beneath the Rhetoric, the Situation on the ground, told a very different Story. Russia’s Donbas Campaign is Not Advancing. It is Unraveling.
Moscow’s Claims about Kupiansk and Pokrovsk Collapsing, proved False almost immediately. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Kupiansk Himself, Publicly Exposing the Lie. Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William B. Taylor, later Confirmed what Ukrainian Forces already Knew. Russia had neither City. It still does Not. “They said they had it, and they don’t,” Taylor said, describing a Campaign built on Deception rather than Progress.
The Reason for those Lies is simple. Russia is Failing in the Donbas, and Putin knows it. Despite Committing Enormous Manpower and Resources, Russian Forces cannot Achieve a Breakthrough. Ukraine sees every Movement. Armor Concentrations are Detected. Assaults are Broken Up before they Gain Momentum. As Taylor explained, Russia Cannot Mass Forces without being immediately Targeted.
Over time, this Failure has Allowed Ukraine to do something Decisive. It Built a Fortress Belt. Razor Wire, Anti-Tank Ditches, Concrete Obstacles, and Layered Defensive Lines now Stretch across Key Axes of Advance. These Positions are Spaced within Mortar Range of One Another, ensuring that every Meter Russia takes Costs Blood. Attrition is No Longer a Byproduct of the War. It is Ukraine’s Strategy.
Russia’s Response has been Desperation. False Claims of Ukrainian Attacks on Putin’s Residences were Later Exposed as Fabrications by U.S. Intelligence. The Launch of the Oreshnik Hypersonic Missile toward Lviv was Less about Military Effect and more about Intimidation. Analysts Agree the Strike was meant to Frighten Europe and Distract from Russia’s Inability to Win where it Matters Most, The Donbas.
Military Experts see the Pattern Clearly. Putin Escalates when He is Losing. Senior Analysts describe a Russian Military Suffering Unsustainable Casualty Rates, Eequipment Losses, and even Resorting to Outdated Tactics such as Horse-Mounted Infantry. Russia’s Image of Inevitability is Collapsing under the weight of Reality.
And the Numbers are Unforgiving. Estimates suggest Russia has already Lost over 1.2 million Personnel, more than 11,500 Tanks, and Tens-of-Thousands of Armored Vehicles and Systems, since the Invasion Began. Projections indicate that Fully Conquering the Donbas could take Years, Not Months, at Catastrophic Cost. Some Assessments Push that Timeline into 2027 or Beyond, assuming Russia can even Sustain the Effort.
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to Strike Russia’s Economy. Oil and Gas Revenues have Fallen to a Five-Year Low, further Constraining Moscow’s Ability to Fund the War. Each Billion Lost Weakens the Kremlin’s War Machine.
Putin’s Dilemma is Stark. He Cannot Win Militarily without Destroying Russia, yet He Cannot accept Failure without Shattering the Myth that Sustains His Rule. That is why the Lies Continue. That is why the Escalation Grows Louder.
But the Reality in the Donbas is No Longer Hidden. Ukraine is Holding. Russia is Bleeding. And the War Putin Promised would End Quickly has become a Slow Collapse of His Own Making.
NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker
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