The Russian Armed Forces have suffered from Slow and gGinding Campaigns in Ukraine in recent years, and that Issue will continue into the New year, according to a New Report from the Institute for the Study of War. On December 27th, the Institute Assessed Comments made by the Head of the Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, while Speaking with the Ukrainian News Outlet Suspline.
Budanov Reported that Moscow had Completed its Mobilization of 403,000 Individuals for 2025 in early December and pointed out that the Kremlin could continue to Mobilize New Forces for a “long time”, due to its Population and Financial Resources. However, despite the Kremlin’s Ability to raise New Forces, the Russian Military has Not been able to establish a Strategic Reserve because of its continuing High Casualty Rates. This has Hindered Russia’s Success in the War.
According to Budanov, Russia can Not establish a Strategic Reserve, because its Forces in Ukraine need to be “Constantly” Replaced. Russia can Replace its Losses, but Cannot develop a Large Reserve of Ready Forces for New or Existing Military Operations.
If Russian Leadership wants to Flood a Sector in Ukraine, it needs to Pull Units from other Frontlines, which in turn creates Vulnerabilities on its Flanks that can be Exploited by Ukrainian Forces, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). “The requirement to draw reserves from some sectors of the line to focus on operationally significant undertakings often leaves Russia’s flanks undermanned in ways that create vulnerabilities, sometimes allowing Ukrainian forces to counterattack and retake land," the ISW explained.
The ISW pointed to Ukraine’s Success North of Hulyaipole during a Russian Attack into the Town and the Liberation of a Significant Pportion of the Penetration into the Dobropillya Region Northwest of Pokrovsk, as Two examples of Problems created by Russia Pulling Forces from areas of its Frontline for Critical Operations elsewhere. The recent Liberation of Kupyansk, a Critical City in Kharkiv Oblast, also “benefited from the concentration of Russian forces elsewhere on the line and the lack of ready Russian operational reserves in the area,” according to the ISW.
Limited Manpower is Preventing the Russian Military in Ukraine from Opening New Fronts or Expanding on the Success of its CrossBborder Attacks in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts as well. This is a Problem that the ISW Assessed will Continue into 2026.
“Constraints on Russia’s available military manpower, in contrast with its overall numerical superiority in population, are a severe constraint on Russian operations and will likely remain so in the coming year,” the ISW explained. “Russian forces are therefore unlikely to dramatically change the pace and scale of Russian advances along the frontlines in 2026 if support for Ukraine continues at current levels,” the ISW added.
Slow and Grinding Assaults against Important Ukrainian Positions on the Frontline have been the Hallmark of the Conflict for years. These types of Assaults have Proven to be Extremely Costly for Moscow in Manpower. While the Kremlin can Replace its Losses at the Moment, it cannot Build-Up the Reserve of Men and Material that Russian Vommanders Require, to be able to Launch New Offensives on Operationally Important Objectives, while also Securing Key Positions on the Frontlines from Counter-Attacks that would Lose important Territorial Gains.
The ISW Assessed that 2026 will also be a year of Slow and Grinding Russian Assaults in Ukraine. Russia will be able to maintain its Slow and Steady Rate of Advance, but that will come at the Cost of more Russian Lives and Territorial Losses. “Russian President Vladimir Putin has continued to claim that Russian forces are advancing all along the line, which is untrue, and to intimate that Russian forces can increase the scale and speed of their advances at any moment of his choosing,”
The ISW explained in its Report. “ISW forecasts that Russian forces will continue fighting at their current scale and rate of advance,” the Think Tank's Rreport continued, adding that Russia was also Suffering from the Choices of the Russian Ministry of Defense, which has Focused on Positional Warfare rather than Maneuver Warfare in Ukraine.
“Russian forces cannot currently conduct maneuver warfare at the scale necessary for rapid, operational-level advances. Russian forces are currently unable to address any of the factors complicating its ability to conduct rapid advances or significantly increase its current rate of advance,” the ISW concluded.
At the same time, Russia's Lose of Energy Revenue, will Effect the Ability to Pay the Militry and its Workers, and Build or Purchase needed Wepains.
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