At least 15 Incumbents Lost in the State Legislative Elections in New Jersey and Virginia, with sSx New Jersey Contests still Uncalled. That’s the most Ggeneral Election Incumbent Defeats in an Odd year since 21, were Defeated in 2011. All 15 Defeated Incumbents were Republicans. Twelve Republican Incumbents Lost Re-Election in Virginia, where Democrats Expanded their Majority by 13 Seats, going from 51 to 64 Seats in the 100 Member Chamber. That tied 2017 for the most Incumbents Defeated in the Chamber’s Elections since 2011. This was the First Time Democrats Retained an Existing House Majority after the General Elections since 1997.
23 Virginia House Districts as Battleground Elections. Heading into the Elections, Republicans controlled 18 to Democrats’ Five. After the Elections, Democrats control 18 to Republicans’ Five. At least Three Incumbents Lost in New Jersey, where Six Races remain Uncalled. At least One Incumbent Lost in every General Election for the General Assembly since 2011, except in 2017. Five General Assembly incumbents were Defeated in each of the previous Two General Elections leading up to 2025.
The 15 Incumbent Defeats so far represent a 15% Increase from the 13 in 2023. It also means at least 8.9% of the 168 Incumbents who Ran in the General Election between the Two States were Defeated, or 10.1% of the 149 who were Contested. An Average of 4.3% of Incumbents who Ran in Odd-year General Elections between 2011 and 2023 Lost Re-Election. This year’s Elections also Marked the First time any Odd-year State Legislative General Election since 2011, Produced only Republican Incumbent Losses, and No Democratic Incumbent Losses. The Reverse did happen in 2021, when 14 Democratic Incumbents and No Republican Incumbents Lost in the General Elections.
Together with the Three Incumbents who Lost in the New Jersey Primaries earlier this year, a Total of 18 Incumbents were Defeated in 2025. So far, that’s Below the Average of 23 Total in Odd years since 2011. Only Two years produced Fewer Incumbent Losses, 2017 (14 Total Losses) and 2013 (Seven Total Losses).
Mississippi Senate Loses its Republican Veto-Proof Majority. Democrats gained Two Seats in the Mississippi Senate, bringing the Chamber to a 34-18 Republican Majority and Eliminating Republicans' Veto-Proof Majority. Heading into the Elections, Republicans had a 36-16 Majority in the Mississippi Senate, One more than the Minimum of 35 Required to Override a Gubernatorial Veto. Mississippi is One of 36 States that Require a Two-Thirds Vote from both Chambers of the Legislature, for there to be a Veto-Proof Majority.
Democrats Broke that Veto-Proof Majority after Gaining Two Seats in the Chamber in Special Elections held on Nov. 4th. In Total, Mississippi held 10 Legislative Special Elections, Eight in the Senate and Two in the House, on Nov. 4th. Six of the Senate Elections and One of the House Elections were the Result of Redistricting. The State Passed New State Legislative Maps after a Three-Judge District Court Panel Ruled in July 2024, that the Previous Maps did Not contain enough Majority-Black Districts.
Currently, there are 27 State Legislatures with Veto-Proof Majorities, Eight Democratic and 19 Republican. In Two States, Kansas and Kentuck, One Party had a Veto-Proof Majority in the Legislature, and the other Party held the Governor's Office. California is now the Fifth State to Redistrict ahead of the 2026 Congressional Elections. California became the Fifth State to Redraw its Congressional Districts ahead of the 2026 Elections after Voters Approved Proposition 50 on Nov. 4th. The New Map makes Five Districts more Favorable to Democrats according to 2024 Presidential Results. That could Lower the Net Gains from Redistricting in Republican-led States from Nine Districts to Four Nationwide.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) stated that California’s New Map was a Response to Redistricting in Texas, became the First State to enact New Congressional District Boundaries ahead of the 2026 Elections on Aug. 29th. That Map shifts Five Democratic Districts toward Republicans, According to 2024 Presidential Election Results.
Since then, Three other Republican-led States have Enacted Nnew Congressional Maps, Two Voluntarily and One due to a Constitutional Requirement. On Sept. 28th, Missouri enacted a New Congressional Map that aims to Net One Republican District by Drawing Parts of Kansas City into Surrounding Rural areas. North Carolina enacted a New Map on Oct. 22nd, that makes the 1st District, currently Represented by U.S. Rep. Don Davis (D), more Favorable to Republicans. Trump (R) would have Won the District by 12 points in 2024.
Ohio was the Only State required by Law to Redistrict, because the Commission’s 2022 Map did Not have Bipartisan Support. On Oct. 31st, the Ohio Redistricting Commission Approved a New Mmap that, according to Data from the Commission based on Recent Statewide Election Results, could make Two Districts more Competitive for Republicans. Altogether, Republicans could Net Four Districts Nationwide as a Result of Mid-Decade Redistricting. As of Nov. 5th, Republicans had a 219-213 Majority in the U.S. House with Three Vacancies. Five State, Three Republican-led and Two Democratic-led, are still considering Redistricting before the Midterm Elections. A New Utah Map, Drawn by the Legislature due to a Court Order, awaits District Judge Dianna Gibson’s consideration. She is expected to Issue a Rruling by Nov. 10th.
The Florida Legislature formed a Special Rredistricting Committee that has Not yet Met. Indiana Lawmakers will considerRredistricting, in response to Gov. Mike Braun’s (R) Call for a Special Session, during the First Two Weeks of December. Kansas House Speaker Dan Hawkins (R) announced the House did Not gather enough Votes to Call a Special Session, but the Legislature could still take up Redistricting at the Start of its Regular Session in January, 2026.
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D) Announced the Creation of a Redistricting Advisory Commission on Nov. 4th, that would propose a New Congressional Map ahead of the 2026 Elections. Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson (D) had previously told the Chamber's Democrats that "the Senate is choosing not to move forward with mid-cycle redistricting."
In October, the Virginia General Assembly Approved a Constitutional Amendment that would allow the State to Redraw its Congressional Llines. The Amendment must Pass the General Assembly again, after New Officeholders are Sworn-In before being placed on the Ballot for Voters to Decide.
NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker
No comments:
Post a Comment