Russia's Natural-Gas Transit Contract Deal with Ukraine is set to Expire soon, which would Cut Billions in Revenue. The Deal's possible End, affects European Countries relying on Russian Gas via Ukraine. Russia has shifted much of its Energy Exports to China and India, amid Western Sanctions. Russia lost that Income for its War Chest earlier, when Ukraine closed the Pipeline, and Lost its Tranfer Fees.
Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains Alliances despite Sanctions, keeping Russia's Economy afloat. Countries like India and Vietnam, balance Relations with both Russia and the West. These Alliances are Crucial for Russia to Navigate Trade Restrictions and Economic Challenges.
Putin may be Heavily Sanctioned and running a Country that faces sweeping Trade Restrictions, but He still has Friends. Russia's Friends, or Frenemies, aren't All Pariah States or U.S. Rivals. Some of them, like India and Vietnam, have good Relations with the West, too.
Putin is eyeing Strategic swing Nations like India, which opposes China and Trades with Russia, Moscow is also trying to emerge from Diplomatic Isolation, looking to forge Strategic Relationships beyond Autocratic Partners like: China, Iran, and North Korea. Still, among the Nations Putin has been cozying up to, some are more important to Russia because they keep Trade humming.
These are Five Key Countries for Russia's Sanctions-Skirting Economy:
Brazil: Russia and Brazil have what each other needs, making for a mutually Beneficial Relationship. Russia Exports Oil and Fertilizers to Brazil, and Brazil Exports Agriculture products: including Coffee, Meat, and Soybeans, to Russia.
In 2023, Bilateral Trade between Russia and Brazil reached $8.4 billion, off a record High of nearly $10 billion in 2022. In recent years, Brazil has become important to Russia as part of the BRICS Group, which Putin sees as a Counterweight to the West-led World Order.
BRICS is an Intergovernmental Organization currently comprising Nine Countries: Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Iran, Russia, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates.
Like Putin, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva backs a Multipolar World and has Championed an Alternative to the almighty U.S. dollar in Global Trade and Payments. "Every night I ask myself why all countries have to base their trade on the dollar," the Brazilian Leader said in April 2023.
China: It's No Secret that China and Russia have a Special Relationship.
Not only did Beijing and Moscow declare their "No Limits" Friendship in a Joint Statement on February 4th, 2022, when Putin visited China for the Beijing Winter Olympics, but the Russian Leader wasted No time buttering up China after His Election Victory in March 2024.
China was the First Country Putin Visited after He was Inaugurated for His Fifth term as President. As Authoritarian Regimes, Russia and China have close Historical and Political roots. Beijing's Rivalry with the U.S. and the West, also plays Right into Russia's Script. China has consistently Ranked as One of Russia's most Important Trading Partners since the Mid-2000s. Last year, China's Trade with Russia jumped 26%, to a record $240 billion.
India: While China's ties with Russia are based on their Antagonistic Relationships with the West, Moscow's Relationship with India is more nuanced. New Delhi has been getting closer to the U.S. in recent years. The World's Largest Democracy, India is a Member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a Security Pact that includes: Australia, Japan, and the U.S.
It's also a Top Supply Chain Hotspot alternative to China. At the same time, India has become One of Russia's Top Trading Partners, after Moscow pivoted most Trade away from Europe, following sweeping Sanctions.
Russia's Relationship with India goes back to the Cold War, and Trade between the Two Countries has grown, since Russia started the War in Ukraine. India is a Major Buyer of Russian Oil and Russia is India's Biggest Arms Supplier.
In June, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Russia and met Putin, showing New Delhi isn't afraid to forge its Own path in Diplomacy.
Kazakhstan: Former Soviet Republics, Russia and Kazakhstan are close Trade Partners, and their Economic relationship has only Deepened amid the Ukraine War. In 2024, Trade Turnover between the Two Countries reached $27 billion, nearly 40% Higher than the $19.7 billion in 2019.
Kazakhstan has come under Scrutiny for its Role as a Key Hub of Goods to and from Russia, including Parallel Imports. The KazakhstanGgovernment has been Cracking-Down on such Deals, but some Trade persists. In August, Serik Zhumangarin, Kazakhstan's Deputy PrimeMminister and its Minister of Trade and Integration, told Bloomberg that some Sanctions against Russia have Affected the Central Asian Country's Economy.
Kazakhstan "won't blindly follow the sanctions" if it means Major Local Companies are Affected, Zhumangarin said.
Turkey: Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are both longtime Strongmen Leaders. Russia is One of Turkey's Top Trading Partners, so there are compelling Reasons why Ankara would want to Deepen Ties with Russia.
Just half a year into Russia's Invasion of Ukraine, Erdogan took up Putin's Offer to create a "Natural Gas Hub" as Europe weaned itself off NaturalGgas Imports from Russia.
Since the War's outset, Turkey, a NATO Member, has been positioning itself as an Intermediary between the West and Moscow, Brokering Grain Export Deals, between Russia and Ukraine, and offering to Host Peace Talks between the Two Sides.
Turkey has also expressed Interest in joining BRICS, and has been given Partner Country Status.
NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker
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