New York’s Independent Redistricting Commission (NYIDC) agreed on New proposed Maps for the State’s Congressional Districts on Thursday, marking another Milestone in a messy Two-year process. The New Lines would make notably Minor Changes to the existing Districts, giving a slight edge to Democrats in Two Contested House Seats, and Republicans in One.
The Democratic-Controlled State Legislature, may still Reject the Maps, and draw their own, which could shift as many as Six Republican-held Swing Seats in Democrats’ favor, with profound Implications for Control of the House after November’s General Elections. With Democrat Tom Suozzi's 3rd District Win on Tuesday, Republicans hold 219 house Seats to Democrats' 213.
But it now appears possible, that New York Democrats will simply adopt the Commission’s Maps, avoiding a Legal Battle like the One that Derailed the Process in 2022.
The Maps released Thursday by the Bipartisan 10 Member Commission, would Disadvantage Syracuse-area Congressman Brandon Williams (R-22nd District) by adding the Blue City of Auburn to His District. But Hudson Valley Pat Ryan (D-18th District) would get a slightly Safer Seat, in what had been a Major Swing District, as would neighboring Marc Molinaro (R-19th District).
The Maps are nearly Identical to those drawn by a Court-Appointed Special Master in 2022. Commissioners made few Changes to other Swing Districts that Democrats had hoped to tilt in their Favor: Mike Lawler (R-3rd District, Hudson Valley) Seat, Nicole Malliotakis (R-17th District, Staten Island and Brooklyn), and Three GOP-held Districts on Long Island. “We came into existence to solve these kinds of problems, and the only way they can happen is through cooperation and compromise,” said Charles Nesbitt, the Commission’s Republican Chair.
But Big questions remain about When and How the State Legislature will Vote on the Maps. Lawmakers are Not scheduled to Return to Albany until Feb. 27th, the same day that Candidates are supposed to begin Collecting Petitions to appear on 024 Primary Ballot. That has led some Observers to speculate that the June Primaries for Congress could be Delayed until August, as they were in 2022.
State Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins (D-35th District) revealed little in a Sstatement, saying Her Body is “eager to review the proposed map” and adding that She was “mindful of the election cycle calendar.” One Hudson Valley State Senator, James Skoufis (D-42nd District), has already Pledged to Vote against the Maps, which He criticized for Protecting Incumbents from both Parties.
Another Democratic State Lawmaker, who asked to remain Anonymous, predicted that fellow Rank-and-File Members, would push back if Assembly and Senate Leaders simply go along with the Commission’s Plan, in order to Avoid a Republican Lawsuit.
“When other states have free rein to redistrict, New York is going to just take a pass?” the Lawmaker said. “I think that members are going to be agitated, to say the least, if the changes are as de minimis as have been reported and we’re asked to just give a thumbs-up.”
Indeed, New York’s Highest Court, which struck down the Democrat-Friendly Maps in 2022, now leans more Liberal under Chief Judge Rowan Wilson, and appears likelier to Support the Legislature's Maps. The Court sided with Democrats by Ruling in December, 2023, that New York had to Reopen its Redistricting process, holding that New York could Not Reuse the Court-Drawn Maps from 2022.
“I don’t think they should be afraid of a lawsuit,” the State Lawmaker said Thursday. “We’ve got the Court of Appeals directing them to do this and basically giving us a blank check to redraw.”
The Commission’s Map, if Adopted without Changes, would swing the Republican Williams’ Upstate District by Four Percentage points in Democrats’ Favor, said Dave Wasserman, an Analyst for Cook Political Report, in a Social Media Post. Fellow Incumbents Ryan and Molinaro, would see similar Swings toward their own Parties.
Downstate, the Commission made few Changes. The Democratic Primary Contest, between Incumbent Jamaal Bowman and Westchester County Executive George Latimer, could have been Reshaped by New Lines, but Commissioners made No Changes to the Seat.
And the Manhattan District that radically combined the Upper East and West Sides in 2022, putting Longtime Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney (D-73rd District) out of a Job, would be Uunchanged under the Commission Plan.
The Once-a-Decade Redistricting Process, set in motion by the 2020 Census, devolved into Disorder in 2022, when the Independent Commission, a creation of ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), Failed to Agree on a New Set of Maps, which thrust the Decision to the State Legislature.
From there, State Democrats designed Districts that would have heavily benefited the Party, prompting Republicans to Sue, claiming an Unconstitutional Gerrymander. In April 2022, the State’s Top Court, unexpectedly sided with Republicans, Ruling that New Lines were needed.
Those Maps, ultimately drawn by Neutral Special Master Jonathan Cervas, likely helped Republicans Flip Four Seats in New York, on their way to Winning Control of the House of Representatives.
NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker
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