Over the past few months, Commentators and the Media have issued Warnings about how the rise of Mail-in-Ballots could cause Higher Rates of Ballot Rejection and could mean a Longer Wait for Final Results.
But Election Experts and Officials are also expecting a Major Increase in the Rates of Provisional Ballots, which are Time-Consuming for Officials to Process and are always the Last to be Counted.
Provisional Ballots are Issued to In-Person Voters whose Registration Status or Eligibility can't be immediately Verified at the Polls. If there are more of them to Count, it could Draw Out the Timing of Final Results.
In many States, Provisional Ballots are also Issued to Voters who Requested a Mail Ballot but went to Vote-in-Person, an increasingly common Occurrence in 2020. Check you State to see if this is the case in your State. And some States won't Count Provisional Ballots if their Number is Less then the Difference in the Vote between Candidates.
"I think if anything is going to delay the state's canvassing of the official vote totals, it's going to be provisional ballots more than absentees or mail-ins," Forest Lehman, the Elections Director for Lycoming County in Pennsylvania, a key 2020 Battleground State and a Hotbed of Litigation over 2020 Election Rules, said. "For all the ink that has been spilled over absentees ... I don't think nearly enough has been said about provisionals."
Congress created Provisional Ballots with the Help America Vote Act in 2002, enacted in response to the 2000 Election Debacle in Florida. In addition to Problems caused by Punchcard Voting Machines and "hanging chads," Thousands of Florida Voters were Erroneously Removed from the Voter Rolls prior to the Election and in many Cases, turned Away from the Polls and Not allowed to Vote.
Data from the U.S. Election Assistance Commission (EAC) shows that in the 2016 Election, Voters Cast around 2.5 Million Provisional Ballots, with 71% of those Ballots Partially or Fully Counted. By Contrast, about 99% of All the Absentee and Mail-in-Ballots Cast in 2016 were Counted.
A Voter may be issued a Provisional Ballot if: they Show-Up to Vote at a Precinct where they're Not Registered; if they're Not Listed on the Voter Rolls at All; if they don't bring the Required Identification required to Vote in the States that currently have Strict Voter ID Laws, or if they don't Show sufficient Proof of Residency when Registering to Vote on Election Day.
"Provisionals end up counting and getting processed way after mail ballots, so when we think about when we'll see election results ... provisionals are actually the final piece of the puzzle, it's not mail-in ballots" Amber McReynolds, the CEO of the National Vote at Home Institute told Reporters in an October Press Briefing. "And we expect a record number of those this year because of registration issues or changes at the last minute."
Lehman said that Lycoming County saw 800 Provisional Ballots cast in the State's June 9th Primary, up from just 26 cast in the 2016 Presidential Primary. Almost All of those were by Voters who had also Requested Mail Ballots and took significantly more time to Count than Regular Mail Ballots. "We canvassed 7,500 mail-in ballots on Wednesday before 5 p.m., but it took us seven to 10 days to process 800 provisionals, and that's going to happen all over the state," Lehman added. "Because even if we get all that other stuff scanned in quickly, we've still got 50 to 100,000 provisionals across the state that are going to take seven to 10 days to get through — well, there's your 2016 margin right there."
Connie Schmdit, the Elections Commissioner in Johnson County, Kansas, which includes the Kansas City Suburbs of Overland Park and Olathe, tweeted on Saturday, that about 13% of the Total In-Person Advance Votes cast on October 17th and over 300 In-Person Votes, on October 19th, were Provisional Ballots, many of which were Issued because the Voters had already been Sent Mail Ballots they Requested.
MIT Elections Scholar, Charles Stewart III, also pointed on Thursday, that in the first Three Days of In-Person Early Voting in Georgia, around 12% of the In-Person Votes were cast by pPople who had previously Requested a Mail Ballot.
In addition to Voters Casting Ballots in Person because they didn't receive a Mail Ballot as requested or they forgot that they had requested a Mail Ballot earlier in the year, some appear to be doing so after Receiving their Ballot because they may have heard that Mail Voting is Unreliable or that their Vote will be Counted First if they Vote-in-Person.
But, McReynolds explained, Voting a Provisional Ballot will do the Exact Opposite. "A lot of people are changing their mind likely because they're being told by pundits or other folks to vote in person instead of vote by mail," she said. "But what's important about that is that in a lot of states, if you go on Election Day to vote in person but you've requested a mail ballot, you're going to vote a provisional."
In New York, the Rule is: Even if you request or cast and return an absentee ballot, you may still go to the polls and vote in person. The Election Law recognizes that plans change. The Board of Elections is required to check the poll book before canvassing any absentee ballot. If the voter comes to the poll site, on Election Day or during early voting and votes in person, the absentee ballot is set aside and not counted.
NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker
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