In the 2018 Midterm Elections, Voter Turnout among New York City Voters rose Significantly for the First time since 2002, and Voters Turned Out in Record-Breaking Numbers for One of the most Exciting Midterm Elections in recent Memory.
The Breakdown:
Race and Ethnicity
Race and Ethnicity were Two of the Strongest Predictors of Voter Turnout by Neighborhood in the 2018 Midterm Elections. Neighborhoods with Large African American Populations saw the Greatest Positive impact on Turnout, followed by Neighborhoods with Large Latino Populations. In fact, the Percentage of African American Individuals in a given Neighborhood had the Strongest Positive Relationship with Voter Turnout by Neighborhood among All the Characteristics Studied.
Age Group
Age Group was also a Strong Predictor of Turnout by Neighborhood. Neighborhoods with a Large Percentage of Individuals between the Ages of 30 and 39 saw the Greatest Positive Impact on Voter Turnout of any Age Group, followed by the 70 or Older Age Group and the 50 to 59 Age Group.
Income
Income had a Positive Relationship with Turnout by Neighborhood, but this Relationship was much Weaker than the Relationships for Race, Ethnicity, and Age Group. Households with a Combined Income between $35,000 and $49,999 was the Only Income Bracket that had a Significant Positive Relationship with Voter Turnout.
Naturalization Status
The Percentage of Naturalized Citizens by Neighborhood was another Negative Predictor of Voter Turnout by Neighborhood. In fact, the Impact of Neighborhoods with Large Percentages of Naturalized Citizens on Turnout was about as Strong as the Impact of Neighborhoods with Very Low Levels of Educational Attainment, i.e. No College Education.
Mobility
Neighborhood Turnout was also Negatively Impacted in Neighborhoods with a Large Percentage of Individuals who had Moved in the Last Year. While this Relationship is a Moderate Predictor of Negative Turnout, it is Weaker than Level of Education.
Gender
While Expecting to see a Negative Impact on Turnout in Neighborhoods with Low Levels of Educational Attainment, a Large Immigrant Population, and a Highly Mobile Population, it is Unusual for the Percentage of Women in a Neighborhood to have a Negative Impact on Turnout. This is because women are generally More likely to Vote than Men. However, in 2018, Large Female Populations did have a Moderately Negative Impact on Voter Turnout at the Neighborhood Level.
CLICK HERE to Read and View 2018-2019 Voter Analysis Report and the Interactive Maps.
NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker
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