The Independent View: Democrats' Presidential Nominating Process a Confusing Mess and Debate Qualifications

Democratic Presidential Candidates are Hiring Top Tier Operatives to Navigate the Complex Delegate System in the 2020 Primary Race.

The Democratic National Committee Reformed the Delegate System after the 2016 Election. Some State Primaries and Caucuses Award only some of the Delegates to the Top few Finishing Candidates. Some are Winner-Take-All. It is a Complex Process that Requires real Talent to Navigate.

The New Rules Prohibit Super Delegates from Voting on the First Ballot for the Party's Presidential Nominee at the National Convention. So in the Event of a Contested Convention where there is Not a Clear Presumptive Nominee, those Superdelegates might come in handy on a Second Ballot.

Candidates want to Survive Long enough to Win Crucial States. Already, the 2020 Presidential Candidates are taking the Delegate Process seriously, Recruiting Seasoned Operatives as the Election Cycle gets underway.

For a Contested Convention:

3,768 First Ballot or 4,532 for Subsequent Ballots of Eligible Delegates Vote.

1,885 First Ballot or 2,267 Subsequent Ballots Delegate Votes needed to Win.

Qualification of Candidates for Debates

First Two 2019 Debates

The First 2020 Democratic Primary Debate, aired on NBC and MSNBC, will be held over 2 nights on June 26th and June 27th, 2019. The Debate will feature Back-to-Back Primetime Broadcasts on consecutive Nights to Ensure each Candidate gets Access to a Primetime audience.

In order to Qualify for the First Two Debates, Candidates must as a Minimum comply with One of the Two listed Criteria, and if this Test results in more than 20 Qualified Candidates, the Two Criteria will be Evaluated in Combination as per the Outlined Tiebreaking Rules:

Polling Criteria: Attain a minimum of 1% Support in a Minimum of Three Approved Official Polls for either the National Level or the First Four Primary States: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. The Polling Threshold will be determined using Polls published after January 1st, 2019 up until Two Weeks before the Scheduled Debate, with each Candidate only being able to Count One Poll by the same Pollster within each Region towards the Requirement. For a Poll to be considered it also needs to have been Commissioned or Conducted by this Limited set of Organizations: the Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, The Des Moines Register, Fox News, the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Monmouth University, NBC News, The New York Times, National Public Radio, Quinnipiac University, Reuters, the University of New Hampshire, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and Winthrop University.

Fundraising Criteria: Meet a Fundraising Threshold, in which a Candidate must receive Donations from a Minimum of 65,000 Unique Donors, with at least 200 Unique Donors per State in at least 20 States. Candidates who wish to Qualify using the Fundraising Threshold must present Evidence to the DNC of their Eligibility using Donor Data Collected by ActBlue or NGP VAN.

Tiebreaking Rules, to Limit the Number of Qualified Candidates to 20:

(1) Candidates meeting Both Criteria will have Primacy over those who only Met One Criteria. If more than 20 Candidates met Both Criteria, only the Top 20 Candidates with the Highest Polling Averages will be Invited. The Polling Averages for Candidates will be Calculated as the Average of their Three Best Results in any Qualifying Polls, Rounded to the nearest Tenth. Should Multiple Candidates still be Tied for the 20th Spot in the Debates, the Candidates will be further Ranked by the Number of Polls in which Each Candidate Received at least 1% Support. The Percentages used will be the "top-line number listed in the original public release from the approved sponsoring organization/institution, whether or not it is a rounded or weighted number".

(2) If More than 20 Candidates Qualify by Either Criteria but Fewer than 20 Candidates qualified on the Basis of Both Criteria and More than 20 met the Polling Criteria, then: All Candidates who met Both Criteria will be Invited, with the Rest of the Available Slots Awarded to the Remaining Candidates who only Met the Polling Criteria, with Priority given to those with the Highest Polling Averages as calculated per the Method described under Rule 1.

(3) If More than 20 Candidates Qualify by Either Criteria but Fewer than 20 Candidates Qualified on the Basis of Both Criteria and Fewer than 20 met the Polling Criteria, then: All Candidates who met Both Criteria and All Candidates who Only met the Polling Criteria will be Invited, with the Rest of the Available slots awarded to the Remaining Candidates who only met the Fundraising Criteria, with Priority given to those with the Highest Number of Unique donors.

For the First Debate, Candidates must Meet the Above Criteria either by June 12th or by June 13th, as the Public still Awaits DNC to Clarify the Exact Deadline day. An Analysis by CNN indicated that 19 candidates had Already Met One of the Two Criteria by May 16th, based on Public Polls without subjecting them to Calculated Adjustments and Self-Reported Fundraising Information before verification.

Each of the First Two Debates will take Place during Two Consecutive Nights, with a Maximum of 10 Candidates per Night. For Each of the Two First Debates, the DNC will Draw Lots among the Candidates meeting either of the Above Thresholds to determine whether they will Participate in the Debate on the First or Second Night.