Sunday, July 8, 2018

NY Congressional General Election Matchups to Watch

As New York and the Country move toward November’s Election Day, Congressional Races are now set, while State-Level Primaries will happen on September 13th for all 213 Seats in the State Legislature and the State-wide Posts of Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Comptroller, and Attorney General. And this year, the Political Parties Qualification for a Ballot Line will be determined by the Number of Votes it gets for Governor, which is 50,000, and the Total Number will determine their Position on the Ballots for the next Four years.

While those Elections are being fought out, throughout the Summer and into the Fall, there will also be a good deal of attention of the State’s most Contentious Congressional Races.

District 1 Perry Gershon, a former Businessman who’s framed his Race as one against Trump, won the Democratic Party’s Nomination to run in this Eastern Long Island District. The Cook Political Report rates NY-01 as “Likely Republican,” and it went Twice for Barack Obama before supporting Donald Trump in the 2016 Election. Gershon will challenge Two-Term Republican Incumbent Rep. Lee Zeldin, who won Re-Election in 2016 by 16 Points over his Democratic Opponent. As of June 6th, Zeldin maintains over a 3-1 Fundraising Lead over Gershon.

District 2 - First-time Candidate Democrat Liuba Grechen Shirley will Challenge Incumbent Republican Rep. Peter King, who has been in Office since 1992, in this Long Island District that also Voted for Trump after supporting Obama Twice. King Won his most recent Re-Election with 62.5% of the Vote, Defeating Democrat DuWayne Gregory. The day after her Primary Victory, Grechen Shirley challenged King, who recently said that Town Halls “diminish democracy,” to a Series of Five Public Debates. The Incumbent, as of the beginning of the Month, has over $3 Million on hand, while Grechen Shirley has slightly less than $150,000 left over after her Primary Campaign.

District 3 - Democrat Rep. Tom Suozzi Won his Seat in this District Covering Long Island’s North Shore and part of Queens by a 6% Margin in 2016. NY-3 is narrowly Democratic, and it Voted for Clinton in 2016 by the same Margin as Suozzi Win. Republican Challenger Dan DeBono ran Unopposed in the Republican Primary but, going into the General Election, has less than One-Tenth of the Cash on Hand as the Incumbent.

District 11 - After a caustic Primary Battle, Rep. Dan Donovan (R), a former District Attorney, emerged victorious over Michael Grimm, who held the Seat before Donovan but Resigned after pleading Guilty on Charges of Tax Fraud. Both Candidates tried to ride the Coattails of Republican President Trump, tying their Records to his Own in a District that overwhelmingly Voted for him in 2016, the District covers all of Staten Island and a Small Section of Southern Brooklyn. Donovan claimed Victory with 63.9% of the Vote to Grimm’s 36.1%.

On the Democrat side, decorated Army Veteran Max Rose emerged Victorious with a similar Vote share, pulling in 64.7% to beat Five other Democrats for the Nomination. Rose ran a well-funded Campaign with Support from the DCCC, raising a total of $1.6 Million through June 6th, according to Federal Election Commission Filings. Rose was formerly an Executive at a Nonprofit Health Care Organization and worked as Director of Public Engagement and Special Assistant under late Brooklyn District Attorney Ken Thompson. He has received Endorsements from several Local and State-level Elected Democrats as well as Prominent National Democrats, including U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York and Rep. Crowley. He was also backed by the Local Brooklyn City Council Member, Justin Brannan. The Working Families Party and the Women’s Equality Party Endorsed him, as did several Unions and Political Action Groups.

Though the District is split between Two Boroughs, Rose said his Pitch wouldn’t be determined by the Community where he Campaigns, but rather by the bread-and-butter Issues that Residents care about. “[W]hat matters is what is troubling voters each and every day,” he said, pointing to Crumbling Infrastructure, Interminable Commutes, an Increasing Cost-of-Living, and the Hundreds of Opioid Overdoses in Staten Island.

District 19 - Republican John Faso currently Holds the District 19 Seat in the Hudson Valley and the Catskills but is widely seen as a Vulnerable Incumbent in a Toss-Up Seat. A former State Assembly Member, Faso Won the Seat in 2016 after the Retirement of Republican Rep. Chris Gibson. Like Donovan, Faso Voted against the Recent Tax Cuts Passed by Congress and Signed by Trump, and has also Criticized the President’s “zero tolerance” Policy that separated Thousands of Migrant Children from their Parents. He ran Unopposed in the Primary and FEC Filings show he has about $1.1 Million in his Campaign Coffers.

Faso’s Democratic Opponent in the General is Harvard Law Graduate and Rhodes Scholar Antonio Delgado, who Won in a Crowded Primary that saw Millions in Campaign Money coming in for all the Candidates. Delgado was Endorsed by Citizen Action of New York, a Progressive, Left-leaning Organization that is now one of the few Groups at the Core of the Working Families Party. Delgado secured about 22%t of the Vote, which was enough to place him First over Six other Democrats. He Outraised all his Primary Opponents and has about $759,000 left for the General Election.

District 22 - First-Term Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney narrowly Won this Large, Rural, and Majority-White Central New York District in 2016. Democratic State Assembly Member Anthony Brindisi, who faced No Primary Challenger, will challenge Tenney in the General Election. Tenney is a Hardline Conservative endorsed by the Tea Party and the National Rifle Association, and the District went for Trump by 16% in 2016.

Brindisi’s Fundraising has, at times, outpaced Tenney’s, and, as of June 6th, the Challenger maintains a $400,000 Cash Lead over Tenney. An April Poll conducted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reported that 50% of Voters in the District would favor Brindisi, who has been attempting to Appeal to the District’s Moderate Republicans, in the General Election, compared to 44% Supporting Tenney.

District 24 - In this Central New York District that Voted for Trump once and Obama twice, Democratic Law Professor Dana Balter will face off against Incumbent Republican Rep. John Katko. Katko styles himself a Moderate Republican, claiming to have Written in Nikki Haley’s Name for President in 2016, though he has Voted in line with the President approximately 90% of the time. Running for a Third Term in the House of Representatives, Katko Won both his Previous Races by Margins of about 20%. He maintains a 13-1 Fundraising Lead over Balter, who Advocates for Medicare-for-All, a Carbon Tax, and Elimination of Cash Bail.

NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker
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