The Independent View: NY on Pace to Lose 1 Congressional Seat in 2022

It's likely that New York will lose One of its 27 Congressional Seats in the 2022 Reapportionment because its small growth in Population hasn't kept pace with the Nation as a whole. According to Census Bureau Estimates released Wednesday, New York’s Population was 19.85 Million as of July 1st, 2017. That’s up by 471,297 from the last Census conducted in 2010. But the gain of 2.4% is less than the Nation's growth of 5.5%.

Looking at the Shifts of Population in each State from 2010 through 2017, then assumed that they will continue Unchanged for another Three years. New York is on pace to top 20 Million Residents by the next Reapportionment, but if trends continue as they have so far this Decade, its share of the Country’s Population will dip from 6.29% to 6.03%. Assuming the size of the House of Representatives remains unchanged at 435 Members, the formula that’s used to distribute Seats will likely mean the Loss of a Seat, probably Upstate, in New York.

That would be the State's Smallest shift in representation in 70 years. The State had 45 Representatives for a couple of Decades leading up to the 1950 Census, when it dropped to 43. In each of the Six succeeding Censuses after that, it Lost somewhere between Two and five Seats. As the numbers stand now, there would need to be a very sudden shift in Population for New York’s Total to be anything but 26 Seats in the Decade following the 2022 Reapportionment.

If the trajectories of other States remain Unchanged, New York’s Population would need to hit 20.4 Million in order for it to Retain 27 Seats. That would require an increase over the next Three years that’s Eight times as rapid as that which has occurred over the past Seven. On the other hand, if New York’s population falls by about 100,000 Residents per year over the next Three years, it would lose Two Seats. “Any little change could have an impact,” said Kimball Brace of the Virginia-based Consulting firm Election Data Services, which released a similar Analysis on Wednesday afternoon.

Natural Disasters, for example, might result in sudden drops in Population for some States, and they might have already done so.
“The question is, what did the hurricanes do this last year? The data doesn’t reflect that yet, because the Census data is as of July 1,” Brace said. “And of course the hurricanes in Florida and Texas and Puerto Rico occurred [later]. Certainly the word is that a lot of Puerto Ricans are moving to Florida." That could lead to Florida picking up Three New Seats, rather than the Projected Two.

Numerous Observers also have expressed concerns over whether the Census Bureau is equipped to carry out its Main Task in 2020 with precision. President Trump hasn’t filled its Vacant Top post, the Bureau has Canceled a couple of Scheduled Rehearsals, and a Plan to shift Questionnaires to the Internet hasn’t been fully Tested. “The Census Bureau is at its lowest funding level at this point in the decade than at any other time in the past several decades,” said Jeff Wice, a Fellow at SUNY Buffalo Law School who has worked with Senate Democrats in New York in past Redistricting Cycles.

Even without those concerns, New York has a History of being Undercounted, occasionally to a degree that might make a difference in Congressional Representation. For example, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg charged that the Tally had missed 50,000 People in Brooklyn and Queens in 2010. The Undercount is largely due to the relatively unique Demographics of the State, Immigrants, Minorities, and Rural Residents tend to be the hardest to Count, and New York has all three of these Communities in sizable numbers.

And there's a fear that New York's historic struggles in its attempt to obtain an Accurate Count will only be exacerbated in 2020.
“There’s no guarantee that the internet-based questionnaire will work,” Wice said. “In New York, that’s even more so, because many people don’t have access to the internet. The threats against immigrants add another factor against an accurate count … The census counts all people regardless of citizenship, yet if Homeland Security is conducting raids in minority areas or businesses, that’s going to leave people trusting government even less. There’s less incentive to respond to a census form.”