The Independent View: Trumpism Fueling Counter-Movement Toward a Multi-Party System

In less than a week, President Trump has been Rebuked to varying degrees by the last Republican President, a Onetime Party Presidential Nominee, the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and a longtime Conservative Lawmaker.

For any other President, perhaps, the criticisms leveled by George W. Bush, John McCain, Bob Corker, and Jeff Flake would likely have been damning, a Sign that the Leader of the GOP was somehow an Outcast within it. But for Trump, the condemnations figure to be Emboldening, and are Emblematic of his Takeover of the Party. Notably, the President's most Vocal Critics won't have to Face Republican Voters again. And those who do have kept whatever Misgivings they may have about Trump to themselves, cognizant of the Perils of Speaking Out.

This Raises the Question of where Republicans like these go if they No Longer Fit In. Might Trumpism Fuel a Counter-Movement toward a Multi-Party System?

A Pew Poll suggests Voters might be inclined to follow suit. The Political Topography Survey shows significant Fractures within both Major Parties, and sorts the Sentiments into Eight Different Constituencies.

Divisions on the Right

Core Conservatives and Country First Conservatives - both overwhelmingly Approve of Trump, but Disagree on much else. including Immigration and whether it Benefits the U.S. to be Active Internationally.

Market Skeptic Republicans - sharply diverges from the GOP’s traditional Support for Business and Lower Taxes. Only about a third of Market Skeptic Republicans, 34%, say Banks and other Financial Institutions have a Positive Effect on the way things are going in the Country, lowest among Republican-leaning Typology Groups.

New Era Enterprisers - are fundamentally Optimistic about the State of the Nation and its Future. They are more likely than any other Typology Group to say the Next Generation of Americans will have it Better than People today. Younger and somewhat less overwhelmingly White than the other GOP-leaning Groups, New Era Enterprisers are strongly Pro-Business and generally think that Immigrants Strengthen, rather than Burden, the Country.

Divisions on the Left

Solid Liberals - are the Largest Group in the Democratic Coalition, and they make up 48% of Politically engaged Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents. Largely White, Financially Comfortable and Highly Educated, most are College Graduates and nearly a third have Postgraduate Degrees, and overwhelmingly express Liberal Attitudes on Virtually every Issue.

Opportunity Democrats - agree with Solid Liberals on Major Issues. But they are Less Affluent, Less Politically Engaged, and Less Liberal, both in their Attitudes on Issues and in how they describe themselves Politically. One area of Difference between them is on Corporate Profits: 40% of Opportunity Democrats say most Corporations make a “Fair and Reasonable amount of Profit,” compared with 16% of Solid Liberals. And Opportunity Democrats stand out in their Belief that most People can get Ahead if they are Willing to work Hard.

Disaffected Democrats - have very Positive Feelings toward the Democratic Party and its Leading Figures. Their Disaffection stems from their Cynicism about Politics, Government, and the way things are going in the Country. This Financially stressed, Majority-Minority Group supports Activist Government and the Social Safety Net, but most say Government is “Wasteful and Inefficient.” A large Majority of them say their side has been Losing in Politics, while fewer than half believe that Voting gives them a Say in how the Government runs things.

Devout and Diverse a Second Majority-Minority Group, faces even Tougher Financial Hardships than Disaffected Democrats. They also are the most Politically Mixed Typology Group, about a quarter lean Republican, as well as the least Politically Engaged. Like Disaffected Democrats, they are Critical of Government Regulation of Business. They also are the most Religiously Observant Democratic-leaning Group, and the only one in which a Majority, 64%, says it is necessary to believe in God to be Moral and have Good Values.

The Bystanders - in addition to the Eight Main Groups in the Political Typology, this Ninth Group is Missing in Action Politically. Almost no one in this relatively Young, largely Minority Group is Registered to Vote and most pay Little or No Attention to Politics and Government.

The Largest Groups are described as Core Conservatives and Solid Liberals, and they together make up about a Third of the Electorate. These Two Groups are the most Politically Engaged, the Survey found, which Underscores the Polarization of the Electorate. But the remaining 70% of Voters in the other Categories are of Interest to People like Reed Galen, a former Republican Operative who Left the GOP last year and is now the Political Chairman of the Serve America Movement (SAM), which aims to Build a New Political Party. "We are seeing as much chaos in the American political system as we've seen since the Whigs broke up," Galen said.

CLICK HERE for more information about Serve America Movement (SAM).

Establishing a New party is a lofty Goal, Galen recognizes, particularly since the Two Dominant ones have Monopolies on Politics and Governance. Financing and Ballot Access are Monumental Climbs. Moreover, Voter Dissatisfaction with the Current Political Parties is not Monolithic. Still, Galen argues that the more immediate Goals involve Recruiting Independent Candidates, and getting Registered Voters to support them, even if they don't fully leave their Respective Parties. He points to Alaska Gov. Bill Walker, a Republican who ran as an Independent in 2014. "It's not always going to be successful all the time, but you just have to be successful enough to show voters you can do it, and to scare the hell out of the two parties so that they react," Galen says. "The goal is to break the two-party system."

For now, even Trump's Top Critics aren't willing to Abandon the GOP. "I'm not convinced this is a lost cause," says Pete Wehner, who served as a Speechwriter for Bush. "The winds are at the back of the Trumpites and the Bannonites to some extent, but the idea of giving up on the GOP and starting a new [party] is not particularly reasonable." Instead, Wehner argues, Republicans in Office need to Punch back. "Until the last week or so there has been no counter-narrative," he says. "What they haven't really tried is a sustained comprehensive counter-case to Trumpism and Bannonism."

Such a case, as Wehner acknowledges, is difficult to make. Some could argue that the counter-argument has already been Rejected. Earlier this year, Flake ignored the Advice of Political Consultants and released a Book condemning Trumpism. He made no secret of his Disagreements with the President on Behavior and some Policies, indeed, he put them in Full View. Flake figured Voters in his increasingly Diverse and Trending Purple State might Reward him for his Convictions. Instead, he saw his Poll Numbers Drop. In an interview with CNN, Flake said his Brand wouldn't be Judged kindly by Party Voters in Arizona. "It's not enough to be conservative anymore. It seems like you now have to be angry about it," he said. "It's difficult to win a Republican primary these days if you disagree with the president on anything."

Flake's Colleagues have taken note, setting up a Divide between Republicans Running for Re-Election Next Year and those who are not. Corker, who Announced last month he would not Run again, unloaded on Trump Tuesday Morning in a round of Television Interviews. "The debasement of our nation will be what he'll be remembered most for," he said. The Statements prompted a round of Hits from Trump on Twitter, and few Republicans in Congress came to Corker's Defense Publicly. Indeed, some took Trump's Side. In an Interview with CNN, Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker, who is likely to face a Primary Challenge Next Year, took Issue with his colleague's Comments, and said Republicans and Trump needed to come together with Tax Reform on the Horizon.

Tax Reform was the Subject of the Meeting Tuesday between Senate Republicans and the President. Without Legislative accomplishments to show for Nine Months of GOP Control of Washington, Lawmakers are feeling Pressure to Deliver. A Show of Unity with the President, then, is Key on Taxes. Indeed, Republican Leaders did not Engage on the Controversies brewing between Trump and some of their Colleagues.

For its part, the White House welcomed Flake's Retirement announcement. "I think the voters of these individual senators' states are speaking in pretty loud volumes," spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders said, referring to both Flake and Corker. "I think that they were not likely to be re-elected, and I think that shows that the support is more behind this president than it is those two individuals." Those comments point to a Key Data Point that is Binding Republicans to Trump: Most Polls Show a Vast Majority of Republican Voters Approve of the President. "The Republican Party's biggest problem is it wants to serve the base it prefers to have, instead of the base it actually has," said Iowa Conservative Radio Host Steve Deace.

This Reality helps explain why there isn't a Ready Home for Republicans who oppose Trump. "In breaking into a different party, is there a constituency when most Republicans say they support the Trump agenda?" asks Scott Jennings, a Kentucky-based GOP Strategist and Veteran of the Bush Administration. "For the most part, when it comes to policy, it feels like Republicans are basically unified. Where they're not unified is on demeanor and disposition. And I'm not sure you can build a whole new party on that."

Republicans in Washington, Jennings says, are concerned about proving they can Govern: "If they all band together and deliver results ... I don't think most Republican voters would care if they were hanging off chandeliers wearing clown makeup."

The Remarks by Flake and Corker and others, then, aren't likely to change the Dynamics on Capitol Hill between Trump and his fellow Republicans. Indeed, Flake's Choice of Retirement over an Embattled Primary could give Lawmakers facing Re-Election more of an Incentive to endear themselves to the President. But even if Tuesday's Events didn't mark a true Inflection Point in the Party, Longtime Members are concerned the Divisions are Unsustainable. "It's becoming clear the fight for the soul of the GOP is a real one and people are going to have to choose sides," says Wehner. "A lot of Republicans and lawmakers were hoping it could go away, or there could be some accommodation of elements of the Trump wing, and it's not going to happen. The differences are too deep."