The Independent View: Senators Who Could Call It Quits in 2017

Orrin Hatch and Dianne Feinstein will be 84 and 85 years old, respectively, on Election Day 2018. If that thought alone isn’t tiring enough, here’s another way of looking at it: If they run and win, both would eclipse the 90-year mark by the end of their term.

But if the serenity of Utah or the coastal beauty of California is beckoning either Senator into retirement, neither is willing to publicly entertain it just yet.

“Age doesn't seem to be a factor,” said Hatch, the Utah Republican who is now in the Presidential line of succession and Heads the powerful Senate Finance Committee. “I’m tough and strong and I have the usual infirmities that anybody my age has but nothing stops me.”

Hatch, who said after his last Re-Election in 2012 that this would be his final term, added, “I don’t think I’m ready to give up the ghost yet.” As the 115th Congress, and the 2018 Election cycle, begins in earnest next week, so is the accompanying speculation about who will retire, pursue other political ambitions or step down for other reasons.

For her part, Feinstein declined to elaborate on her future political plans, telling a reporter recently on whether she planned to run for Re-Election: “Oh, I’m not going to answer that now.” But her longtime colleague, retiring Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), insisted Feinstein was going nowhere. “Oh, I think she is. I think she is running. I think she’ll run. I support her,” Boxer said. “She said she’s running. She told me she’s running. And I know she’s doing fundraising. So my expectation is she will.” Like Hatch, Feinstein is also embracing a powerful role as the new Lead Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee, where she will be the Caucus’ point person on the fight over Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominees and help litigate contentious political issues such as Immigration and Criminal Justice Reform. Feinstein also has a healthy $2.5 million in her Campaign account.

No incumbent so far has announced plans to leave. Party Leaders are working to keep Senators from politically reliable States in place and prevent departures that could alter the balance of power in the Chamber, which will be narrowly divided with a 52-48 GOP Majority next year.

Republicans will try to widen that advantage in 2018, when Senate Democrats face a daunting political map that includes 10 of their members up for Re-Election in States Trump won in November. Five of them: Joe Manchin in West Virginia, Jon Tester in Montana, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Joe Donnelly in Indiana, and Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, are considered especially vulnerable.

Heitkamp also remains in the mix for a job in the Trump Administration, though she said during a recent interview with a North Dakota radio station that she's "likely" to stay in the Senate. Moving to the Trump Administration would likely cede her seat to Republicans because GOP Gov. Doug Burgum would call a Special Election for her replacement.

Also on the watch list is Sen. Bill Nelson, a 74-year-old former astronaut who has represented Florida for three terms in the Senate. His retirement would throw his coveted seat up for grabs, a prospect Democrats are eager to avoid. But Nelson, whose Home State Trump won last month, says that’s not going to happen. “Oh, of course,” Nelson said when asked whether he will run for Re-Election. Nelson said he assumes Florida Gov. Rick Scott, who is Term Limited, is looking at challenging him, a helpful motivator, he said. “I run scared as a jackrabbit. That’s the way I always run," Nelson said.

Some senators, however, are hedging.

Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.), a former Governor and now a Three-Term Senator, said he has yet to decide his plans and will consult with his wife before he does so. Carper has just $300,000 in his Campaign Account, although he’d be heavily favored for Re-Election in the Democratic State.
“I need to talk to the boss, at home,” Carper, 69, said.

Meanwhile, Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) is ramping up his Political activity in anticipation of a 2018 Re-Election bid, even as he faces a September trial on multiple Federal corruption charges. Menendez hosted a holiday party on Dec. 11th with an invite list that Political Adviser Michael Soliman called a “veritable who's who of New Jersey elected officials, opinion-shapers, friends and supporters.” Menendez is also planning fundraising trips to California, Florida, and Texas in the first quarter of 2017, according to Soliman. “He intends to run and run aggressively for reelection,” Soliman said in an email. “There is absolutely nothing that would indicate that this is a United States senator who is contemplating retirement.”

Senators who might be weighing retirement are loath to even hint at it, lest they invite an opponent or prematurely bestow lame-duck status upon themselves.

“Everything that I am planning to do would indicate that I am, but I’m not gonna make any announcements yet,” said Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), who is also up in two years. “I’m gonna campaign based upon what I think is consistent with my record and a strategy to win elections.”

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who ran a surprisingly strong Campaign for the Democratic Presidential nomination this year, said he hasn’t made a decision whether to run. “But everything being equal, I think I will, yes,” Sanders added in a recent interview.

Despite having just $160,000 in his Campaign coffers, Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) said he was “absolutely” running even if he draws a prominent opponent like Gov. Paul LePage. A person close to King said that his meager Campaign account, the smallest among the class of 2018, does not reflect his plans.

It’s not just older Senators who could be flight risks. While Republicans try and buttonhole Hatch to run, the GOP also found two of its younger members wooed by the prospect of being Governor: Sens. Tim Scott of South Carolina and Dean Heller of Nevada. Privately, Republicans believe Scott is unlikely to bolt, given his rising-star status in the Senate and the weak Governor’s office in the Palmetto State.

Heller, on the other hand, publicly flirted with a Gubernatorial run. Popular Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval is Term-Limited, and Heller has a backbreaking commute from his home in Northern Nevada to Washington. But he says he enjoys his work in the Senate nonetheless and on Thursday announced he would run for Ree-Election after his colleagues pressed him to stay.

Nevada is one of the few States where Democrats will have a chance to flip a GOP-held seat in 2018; an open contest would have dramatically improved the odds of a Democratic pickup.

Top Republicans, for their part, are upbeat after a surprisingly strong showing in 2016 and favorable map in 2018.

“We’re focused ... on seats where we have pickup opportunities,” said Sen. Cory Gardner of Colorado, the incoming Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “It’s an exciting time to be in the majority."