The story of the day is Romney’s eligibility for the 2016 Presidential nomination. On Sunday, Romney was asked by a reporter whether he would accept the nomination in the event of a “brokered” or “contested” Republican National Convention (RNC) in July. Romney suggested that, if it was given, he would accept it.
Even in the increasingly expectation-breaking election cycle of Donald Trump, the idea that someone who isn’t actually running for President could be the Republican Presidential nominee is, at best, perplexing. But it is possible, according to Steffen Schmidt, a Political Science Professor at Iowa State University. “Yes, it is absolutely possible that Mitt Romney could be the Republican nominee,” he said. “I don’t know how likely it is, but it’s possible.”
The Mechanics of a Contested Convention
To understand how this would happen, one must understand the mechanics of a “contested” or “brokered” convention, which would have to occur for Romney to secure the nomination.
A contested convention is a situation where, at the end of primary voting, no single Presidential candidate has won 1,237 delegates required to automatically be the nominee. In that situation, delegates at the RNC would have to start negotiating.
“If nobody has enough delegates, then the negotiation begins,” Schmidt said. “For example, Donald Trump would go to Carson delegates or Rubio delegates and say back me, support me, I’m the most like what you want.”
If not enough delegates choose to switch to another side, however, that’s where things get complicated.
“If it’s gridlocked and paralyzed, and there’s nobody who wants to give their support to any of the damaged goods, which is what these guys are going to be by the time they get to the convention, then that’s when the possibility an outsider, like Romney, would start to be considered,” Schmidt said. And at least according to Schmidt, he thinks the candidates are in fact too “damaged” from vitriolic name-calling on the campaign trail to achieve support from already-pledged delegates.
The GOP Would Have to Change the Rules
The one technical problem someone like Romney, or House Speaker Paul Ryan, would face at the convention is the fact that currently, Republican Party rules require candidates also to have won eight states to get the nomination.
However, Schmidt said that the GOP could easily change the rule if they wanted to. I have talked to GOP leaders who tell me the party can change the rules to allow Mitt Romney to be inserted as the candidate even though he has not been running,” he said.
Currently, the only person to have met that eight-delegate threshold is Trump. Cruz is close behind, and will likely meet that goal before Primary season ends. For Rubio, who has only won one state so far, a rule-change might also benefit him in the event of a contested convention.
The convention, however, is months away, and it’s not even clear that a contested one will happen. Last week, RNC Chair Reince Preibus said there was only a slim possibility that a brokered or contested convention would happen. And if it did, at least one Republican Presidential candidate has suggested there would be chaos.
“If the Washington deal-makers try to steal the nomination from the people, I think it will be a disaster,” Ted Cruz said last week. “It will cause a revolt.”
If the Republican party isn’t allowed to pick whoever they want in the event of a contested convention, then what is the point of requiring 50 percent of the delegates?
Schmidt agreed, and said he didn’t believe the public would revolt if Romney, or someone else not actually running, were eventually selected the as nominee. “It would be reported to the public that the delegates and the candidates were gridlocked and paralyzed, that there was no compromise possible, and it was impossible to reach a deal,” he said. “And therefore, the party and the delegates themselves would go back and say, this is the best we can do.”
In fact, Schmidt speculated it might even be good for the Republican party if someone like Romney is selected. “The delegates and the party would say, we thought we were going to save the Republican party, which was going to be destroyed,” he said. “And the leaders of the party would shout hallelujah, and say that this was a great example of patriotism.”
NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker
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