One month before the Iowa caucuses, GOP candidates for the White House are scrambling for a strategy to 1,236 delegates. That's the number of delegates a Republican needs to win the GOP Presidential nomination and prevent a brokered or contested convention in Cleveland, OH from July 18-21, 2016.
How would the nominee contest come down to Cleveland?
If several candidates split the 2,470 delegates that are up for grabs and no one reaches 1,236, Republicans will go to Cleveland to pick their nominee. This is possible with the Caucuses and Primaries from Feb. 1 to Mar. 14th uses proportional allocation of delegates by state districts won.
After March 14, the GOP allows states to award delegates on a winner-take-all basis. Those all-important states/territories are Florida, Ohio, the Virgin Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Arizona, Delaware, Nebraska, Montana, New Jersey and South Dakota.
Here’s a look at the frantic months to come in the race to win 1,236 delegates, 50 percent plus 1 of the total.
The Early States:
The four early states traditionally set the pace for the Presidential contest, and if someone can win all four or even three of the four, they will be the favorite to win the nomination. Right now, however, it seems likely that different winners will emerge from the four states.
In Iowa, on Feb. 1st, is a Caucus with 30 delegates.
In New Hampshire, a Primary on Feb. 9th, which means the State's 30 delegates will be divided.
South Carolina, Primary on Feb. 20th, will give 29 delegates to the popular vote winner and three to the winner of each of its seven congressional districts, a total of 50 delegates. There's a good chance the winner in South Carolina will take an early lead in the delegate race.
Polling is spottier in Nevada, a Caucus on Feb. 23rd, which holds a relatively low-turnout. The key question will likely be who can turn out Caucus support among first-time voters, especially since the lack of same-day registration necessitates a strong organization. Nevada's Caucus will select 30 delegates.
SEC Primary and more:
March 1, known as the SEC Primary, marks the most delegates awarded on a single day. The belt of mostly southern states. If a number of candidates emerge from the first four states thinking they can still compete, the outcome on March 1 could winnow the field. Yet because the contests are proportional, it may be unlikely for one candidate to walk away with a majority of delegates.
All of these states hand out delegates proportionally with various minimum percentages required to win them:
Alabama Primary (50 delegates)
Alaska Caucus (28 delegates)
Arkansas Primary(40 delegates)
Georgia Primary (76 delegates)
Massachusetts Primary (42 delegates)
Minnesota Caucus (38 delegates)
Oklahoma Primary (43 delegates)
Tennessee Primary (58 delegates)
Texas Primary (155 delegates)
Vermont Primary (16 delegates)
Virginia Primary (49 delegates)
Total Delegates = 595
Precursor to Super Tuesday:
In between the two biggest days for delegates, the SEC Primary and Super Tuesday, campaigns will look for momentum with pickups in these states.
March 5:
Kansas Caucus (40 delegates)
Kentucky Caucus (46 delegates)
Louisiana Primary (46 delegates)
Maine Caucus (23 delegates)
March 6:
Puerto Rico Primary (23 delegates)
Hawaii Caucus (19 delegates)
Michigan Primary (59 delegates)
Mississippi Primary (40 delegates)
Washington D.C. Convention (19 delegates)
Super Tuesday:
As of March 15, Super Tuesday, states can award all delegates to one candidate. Florida's 99 delegates are a particularly big prize because it is a winner-take-all state, unlike New York and Texas. It will almost assuredly award the most delegates to a single candidate of any other state. Ohio's 66 delegates will also be winner take all.
Florida Primary (99 delegates)
Ohio Primary (66 delegates)
Northern Mariana Islands Caucuses (9 delegates)
Illinois Primary (69 delegates)
Missouri Primary (52 delegates)
North Carolina Primary (72 delegates)
March 19: Virgin Islands Caucus (9 delegates)
March 22:
Arizona Primary (58 delegates)
Utah Caucus (40 delegates)
More than 200 delegates will be awarded in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states in April, a potential boon for establishment candidates. If the race isn’t wrapped up by this point, the slower pace could hurt campaigns strapped for cash.
April 5: Wisconsin Primary (43 delegates)
April 19: New York Primary (95 delegates)
April 26:
Connecticut Primary (28 delegates)
Maryland Primary (38 delegates)
Delaware Primary (16 delegates)
Pennsylvania Primary (71 delegates)
Rhode Island Primary (19 delegates)
Last chance:
Unless the party is heading toward a brokered convention, it’s unlikely the race makes it to May. The last time more than one major GOP candidate ran into May of Primary season was George H.W. Bush in 1980, who dropped out in early May.
May 3: Indiana Primary (57 delegates)
May 10:
Nebraska Primary (36 delegates)
West Virginia Primary (34 delegates)
May 17: Oregon Primary (28 delegates)
May 24: Washington Primary (44 delegates)
June 7:
California Primary (172 delegates)
Montana Primary (27 delegates)
New Jersey Primary (51 delegates)
New Mexico Primary (24 delegates)
South Dakota Primary (29 delegates)
Colorado, North Dakota, Wyoming, American Samoa and Guam won't hold Presidential preference votes in 2016 in the hopes of granting delegates more autonomy. But because of obscure State party rules, North Dakota is the only one likely to send completely unbound delegates to the convention.
NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker
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