If voters approve the ballot initiative this November, Ohio could become a nationwide leader on how to draw lines for state lawmakers’ districts, said Michael Li, an elections expert at New York University School of Law’s Brennan Center for Justice.
The much-maligned process of allowing lawmakers to draw Rorschach test-like districts to ensure a win for their party could end, or at least become less egregious, with this first-of-its-kind proposal, he said. “People are really watching Ohio very closely,” Li said.
Most of the time, when states change who draws legislative districts, the idea comes from a group of fed-up voters not lawmakers with a vested interest in maintaining their control over the pen, Li said. But a bipartisan effort from Ohio legislators, two of whom were leaving because of term limits, passed last December and is headed to voters this fall. Only nine of 130 sitting lawmakers voted “no” on the proposal, which passed at 4 a.m. the day after legislators planned to break for the holidays.
Hate when politicians from the far left and far right fight over extreme proposals with little incentive to compromise? Then, Issue 1 is for you, a long list of proponents say.
“I want to be a member of a party that wins elections because we have the right ideas,” said Sen. Frank LaRose, R-Copley, who has worked on changes with fellow Summit County Sen. Tom Sawyer, D-Akron. “I don’t want to be a member of the party that wins because they rig the game.”
How would it work?
The changes would create a seven-member panel to draw lines for state-level districts. The group would include the Governor, Secretary of State, State auditor, two Senators and two Representatives, two each from the majority and minority parties.
If approved by voters, the panel would redraw new lines after the next U.S. Census in 2020. If at least two minority and two majority members of the panel like the new map, it would last for 10 years. If they can't agree, the map would only last for four years, long enough to elect new statewide officials.
Panel members must also avoid splitting up neighborhoods and cities, prioritize compact districts, allow citizens to weigh in on the maps through public hearings and base their lines on who shows up to the polls. That last piece makes voter turnout much more important, Li said. Even if Debbie Democrat lives in a heavily Republican area, her vote would help determine how Democratic the district will be in the future. Her candidate might lose now, but she could help another one win later, Li said.
Changes to how Ohioans draw lines would likely create eight to 12 highly competitive districts, estimated Catherine Turcer, policy analyst for Common Cause Ohio. Most of these districts, where either a Republican or Democratic candidate could easily win, would be located where suburban areas and cities connect, she said.
"That’s not that many when you think about 99 (House districts) and yet, that’s way more than we have right now," Turcer said.
Even with changes, it's unlikely that Cuyahoga County voters would elect a Republican candidate or rural county voters would elect a Democratic lawmaker. That's partially because people tend to live close to people with the same political and ideological beliefs as themselves, LaRose said.
But after changes in California, the percent of competitive districts — those with a margin of victory of less than 5 percent — increased from 5 percent in 2012 to 19 percent in 2014. That happened while those making the maps were prohibited from considering how many Republicans or Democrats lived in an area, Li said.
“That’s actually kind of remarkable,” Li said. "If you just draw more natural districts, they will end up being more competitive."
Redrawing lines for Congress isn't on the fall ballot, partially because lawmakers were waiting on a U.S. Supreme Court decision out of Arizona about whether independent commissions could legally draw lines. The other reason for the delay was U.S. Speaker John Boehner, a West Chester Republican who said the GOP had the right to control the pen.
Drawing congressional districts in Ohio could change more than just the 16 districts here. It could affect which party controls the U.S. Senate or House, something politicians and strategists in Washington D.C. care about deeply, Turcer said.
But with a thumbs up from the U.S. Supreme Court and Boehner announcing his retirement, Ohio lawmakers are moving forward with a plan to model congressional districts off Issue 1, if it passes. Legislators know they are working on a tight deadline. If the proposal isn't passed by spring, it's unlikely anything will happen until after the 2020 census, Sawyer said.
If lawmakers wait until after the 2016 or 2018 elections, they can start guessing who will have control following the new census.
"We’re far better off going into it almost blindfolded," Sawyer said.
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