The Independent View: FL New Redistricting Map

On Wednesday, Florida Republicans released a proposed new congressional map to comply with the State Supreme Court's ruling that invalidated the current lines as unconstitutional. Lawmakers won't actually reconvene until Monday, and this map could very well change before it's passed into law. This spreadsheet, using data from the legislature's MyDistrictBuilder tool, compares the 2012 presidential results for the current and proposed lines, broken down by congressional district, so that you can see who's happy and who's screwed.

CLICK HERE to view the proposed new congressional map.

Daily Kos Elections Digest Map Review

Overall, Democrats would stand a chance at netting one seat, picking up FL-10 (Dan Webster is just hosed) and FL-13 (which is open), while losing FL-02 (which would become just as red as we predicted—brutally so). However, that would require the party hold on to Patrick Murphy's FL-18, which wouldn't change materially but would still be a 52-48 Romney district.

But there are other pickup opportunities for Democrats: John Mica's FL-07 would be perfectly split between Obama and Romney, while the open FL-06 would turn into a 52-47 Romney district—winnable with some luck. And though Ileana Ros-Lehtinen has been a very stubborn target in FL-27, her seat would get bluer, too, winding up at 54-45 Obama. (The price for that, though, is freshman Carlos Curbelo's FL-26 getting a couple of points redder.)

Aside from Graham, the rest of Florida's House Democrats wouldn't get hurt much. As expected, Kathy Castor's FL-14 would get considerably redder (because FL-13 got bluer), but it would still be safely Dem. Alan Grayson's FL-09 would also become more Republican at 56-43 Obama (FL-10 is the beneficiary), and given how he underperformed the president last year, he theoretically could jeopardize this seat were he running for re-election. But if there's a silver lining to his Senate bid, it's that we wouldn't be leaving the defense of this seat in his hands.

In all, the map represents an improvement for Democrats, but how could it not? The existing lines were gerrymandered by the GOP to maximize every partisan advantage. It's very possible that Florida's 17 R, 10 D delegation wouldn't budge at all, this in a state Barack Obama carried twice. Democrats would have to run the table to equalize the map, and even then, they'd be left with some very difficult seats to defend heading into the 2018 midterms.