The Independent View: FL Republican Presidential Primary Changed to Winner-Take-All

The Republican Presidential Primary is now on March 15, which will now be winner-take-all.

The state’s Republican Party quietly approved the new delegate allocation rules Saturday night, while the political world’s attention was focused on Iowa and the 11 Republican presidential hopefuls stumping there.

But the Florida decision, another attempt by the state GOP to boost the Sunshine State’s relevance in the party’s nomination process, is the far more consequential event because of the size of the prize: 99 delegates. It could even turn Florida’s primary into a battle of native sons, former Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio.

“The winner-take-all nature of this gives them the inside track but it also raises the stakes,” said Brian Ballard, a Tallahassee-based Republican operative. “Whoever wins that one moves on, but I think it probably eliminates the other one.”

Come the Ides of March 2016, what is now a wide Republican primary field will likely be whittled down to just a few finalists who’ve performed well in the early states and still have enough cash coming in to compete in places like Florida, a large state with expensive media markets.

Many Republican insiders believe there’s a strong possibility both Bush and Rubio will be among the last candidates standing, and there are differing opinions about which candidate is more likely to benefit from Florida’s winner-take-all delegate windfall.

“Both of them will likely have the money to go the distance, but I don’t think it works to the advantage of either of them that it’s winner-take-all now,” said Al Cardenas, a long-time Republican power broker in Florida who is close to Bush and Rubio. “Either campaign is going to see this as a high-risk proposition; if you’re playing a long game, you’d probably rather it be proportional.”

Florida’s new GOP chairman, a real estate magnate and tournament poker player named Blaise Ingoglia said the move to a winner-take-all primary, rather than proportional distribution, is about elevating the importance of the nation’s third-most populous state in the nomination fight.

“The road to the White House runs through Florida,” said Ingoglia in a statement announcing the change. “This now confirms that the road to the Republican nomination for President will run through Florida as well.”

“Is it expensive? Yeah. Is it hard? Yeah. But there is no better proving and testing ground for these candidates than Florida,” said Rick Wilson, a GOP strategist in the state who’s advised a number of presidential campaigns. “If you can run successfully statewide in Florida in the primary, it’s a signaling mechanism that you can run a successful statewide campaign in Florida in the general election.”

While winning Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina in February tends to deliver the victor an outsized amount of momentum, there aren’t a lot of actual delegates up for grabs in those states.

The candidates still fighting after the early states vote might have to make tough choices about where to compete.

“I don’t think you’ll see anyone able to sustain a true national campaign when you’re playing in every state,” said Wilson.

It would be difficult for either Bush or Rubio not to play in Florida, where blanketing the state’s largest media markets with a respectable amount of TV ads will run close to $2 million a week. Other candidates, however, may be more likely to skip the contest and spend their money in less expensive, and more winnable, states now that the only return on investment they’ll get in Florida hinges on finishing first.

“Does Jeb, even with all that money he’s got, really want to spend $20 million to win his home state? I wouldn’t,” Ballard said. “Rubio, who’s also going to be well funded, is in the same boat. So it’s not a great thing for them going in; but for whichever candidate wins, it’ll be the best thing that ever happens to them.”

A better way to allocate delegates for all states is to use the following formula:

1. You get all the state's delegates if you get 50% + 1 in the primary.
2. If no one gets 50% + 1, then use proportional allocation, with allocation formula to be determined by the state.

How would you create the allocation formula?