The Independent View: The Deep South and the 2016 Primary Season

The Deep South has elected Republicans to every top office in the region. Now it wants to be sure that clout extends to the choice of the GOP’s 2016 presidential nominee.

Officials in five Southern states — Tennessee, Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama and Arkansas — are coordinating to hold their primary on March 1, 2016. Texas and Florida are considering also holding a primary the same day but may wait until later in the month. Either way, March 1 would be a Southern Super Tuesday, voting en masse on the heels of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

The joint primary, which appears increasingly likely to happen, would present a crucial early test for Republican White House hopefuls among the party’s most conservative voters. It could, in theory, boost a conservative alternative to a Republican who has emerged as the establishment favorite from the four states that kick off the nominating process. But one risk is that the deep-red complexion of the Southern states’ primary electorates would empower a candidate who can’t win in general election battlegrounds like Ohio and Colorado.

Republicans from the South say their states make up the heart of the GOP and that it’s only fitting the region should have commensurate say over whom the party puts forward to compete for the White House. Proponents are already dubbing March 1 the “SEC primary,” after the NCAA’s powerhouse Southeastern Conference.

The Republican National Committee changed its rules this year to try pushing back the Iowa caucuses from January in 2012 to February in 2016. New penalties also make it virtually impossible for any state other than New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada to vote before the end of that month.

The Southern states, which are preparing to lock in March 1 through a combination of legislative and executive actions, want to be first out of the gate afterward.

Some GOP insiders believe that Florida and Texas will opt to push back their primaries until later in March. Under the new RNC rules, states that wait until March 15 can have “winner take all” primaries, with the candidate receiving the most votes collecting all of a state’s delegates. The potential presidential candidates from Florida and Texas are likely to prefer that. In 2012, Florida lost half its delegates by voting before it was allowed to.

It will be very difficult for a candidate who does not win in one of the first four states to survive until March as a viable contender. Money dries up, endorsements go elsewhere and volunteers lose their enthusiasm. So the test in the South will likely pit the winners of the first states against one another.

The RNC rule requiring that states voting on March 1 award their delegates proportionally increases the likelihood of a similar situation in 2016, with different states choosing different candidates and no decisive statement out of the region.

The primary calendars that are set by the GOP secretaries of state will apply to both Democrats and Republicans. In the marathon 2008 fight between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, Southern states wound up playing important roles, but at least at the moment, Clinton appears to have a much clearer path to the nomination.

Others do not expect a March 1 cluster. More likely, there will be a series of semi-regional primaries. Michigan, Illinois and Missouri might all vote on March 15, creating a Midwest primary. A few Western states may team up to vote on another Tuesday later in March.

Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp, who dreamed up the “SEC primary” branding, said he doesn’t care who the nominee ends up being. He just wants his state to be relevant in presidential politics.