"LZ Granderson Column on the Benefits of Having At Least Three Choices in Presidential Elections"
“A New Kind of Third Party”
"Public Policy Polling Imagines Various 3-Way November 2012 Presidential Contests"
"Pat Caddell and Douglas Schoen Op-Ed in Wall Street Journal on Chances of Powerful “Other” Presidential Candidate"
"Matthew Dowd Essay on Chances of a Strong “Other” Presidential Candidate in 2012"
"PBS Newshour Interviews Two “Americans Elect” Leaders - Internet Voting for President/Vice President in 2012"
"Steve Kornacki Suggests 2012 Presidential Election Reminds Him of 1980 and 1992"
"James Carville Predicts Strong Non-Major Party Presidential Candidate in 2012"
And this is just from August, 2011.
So all the polls show the voters are unhappy with the current politicians no matter which party or their positions. But currently I do not see anyone strong enough to win in 2012 as a minor party candidate or as an independent.
But a different opportunity or disaster could happen, no candidate gets enough electoral college votes to win. If that happens the following will occur:
Contingent Presidential Election by House
Pursuant to the Twelfth Amendment, the House of Representatives is required to go into session immediately to vote for President if no candidate receives a majority of the electoral votes (since 1964, 270 of the 538 electoral votes).
In this event, the House of Representatives is limited to choosing from among the three candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each state delegation votes en bloc - its members have a single vote collectively (and the District of Columbia does not receive a vote). A candidate must receive an absolute majority of state delegation votes (currently 26) in order for that candidate to become the President-elect. Additionally, delegations from at least two-thirds of all the states must be present for voting to take place. The House continues balloting until it elects a President.
The House of Representatives has chosen the President only twice: once under Article II, Section 1, Clause 3 (in 1801) and once under the Twelfth Amendment (in 1825).
Contingent Vice Presidential Election by Senate
If no candidate for Vice President receives an absolute majority of electoral votes, then the Senate must go into session to elect a Vice President. The Senate is limited to choosing from only the top two candidates to have received electoral votes. The Senate votes in the normal manner in this case (i.e., ballots are individually cast by each Senator, not by state delegations). However, two-thirds of the Senators must be present for voting to take place.
Additionally, the Twelfth Amendment states that a "majority of the whole number" of Senators (currently 51 of 100) is necessary for election. Further, the language requiring an absolute majority of Senate votes precludes the sitting Vice President from breaking any tie which might occur.
The only time the Senate chose the Vice President was in 1837.
Deadlocked Chambers
If the House of Representatives has not chosen a President-elect in time for the inauguration (noon on January 20), then Section 3 of the Twentieth Amendment specifies that the Vice President-elect becomes Acting President until the House should select a President. If the winner of the vice presidential election is also not known by then, then under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947, the sitting Speaker of the House would become Acting President until either the House should select a President or the Senate should select a Vice President. None of these situations has ever occurred.
Current electoral vote distribution
The following table shows the number of electoral votes (EV) to which each state and the District of Columbia will be entitled during the 2012, 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. The numbers in parentheses (+) or (-) represent if a state gained or lost electors in comparison to the 2004 & 2008 elections based on the 2010 Census.
State EV
Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arizona 11 (+1)
Arkansas 6
California 55
Colorado 9
Connecticut 7
Delaware 3
Florida 29 (+2)
Georgia 16 (+1)
Hawaii 4
Idaho 4
Illinois 20 (-1)
Indiana 11
Iowa 6 (-1)
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 8 (-1)
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 11 (-1)
Michigan 16 (-1)
Minnesota 10
Mississippi 6
Missouri 10 (-1)
Montana 3
Nebraska 5
Nevada 6 (+1)
New Hampshire 4
New Jersey 14 (-1)
New Mexico 5
New York 29 (-2)
North Carolina 15
North Dakota 3
Ohio 18 (-2)
Oklahoma 7
Oregon 7
Pennsylvania 20 (-1)
Rhode Island 4
South Carolina 9 (+1)
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 38 (+4)
Utah 6 (+1)
Vermont 3
Virginia 13
Washington 12 (+1)
West Virginia 5
Wisconsin 10
Wyoming 3
Washington, D.C. 3
Total electors 538
NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote!
Michael H. Drucker
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