While the implications of the changing landscape for Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain are far from clear, voting experts say the registration numbers may signal the beginning of a move away from Republicans that could affect local, state and national politics over several election cycles. Already, there has been a sharp reversal for Republicans in many statehouses and governors' mansions.
In several states, including the traditional battlegrounds of Nevada and Iowa, Democrats have surprised their own party officials with significant gains in registration. In both of those states, there are now more registered Democrats than Republicans, a flip from 2004. No states have switched to the Republicans over the same period, according to data from 26 of the 29 states in which voters register by party.
But it is the growing involvement of independents in open presidential primaries that has brought the Democrats to where they are today. Independents have done something unprecedented: they have, literally, decided the Democratic nomination by giving Barack Obama his competitive edge. Independent voters, leveraging the Democrats' own delegate selection rules, became the "deciders" in this year's primary elections.
The Democratic Party has been at odds with itself, and independents have taken advantage of the fact. The McGovern-Fraser reforms cleared the way for state run primaries, many of which allow independents to vote. The Mondale-Kennedy-Hart counter-reforms aimed at stabilizing the party and enhancing the power of party elites. On the one hand, the party has adjusted to greater voter participation and popular control. On the other hand the party desires a strong central organization and party control. In the mist of this tug-of-war, independents, in the greatest of all unintended consequences, have become the unlikely kingmakers.
What do you think of the power of the independent movement in 2008?
Michael H. Drucker
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