Independents and the Primaries

Are the media ignoring the Independent vote in the upcoming Primaries?

Here are some views:

Andrew Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, said the biggest change he has found among independent voters was the extent to which they were more likely to identify themselves as Democrats. In a survey he released last week, about 45 percent described themselves as leaning Democrat, up from about 30 percent in 2000. About 30 percent in this survey identified themselves as leaning Republican, a figure that is essentially unchanged from 2000.

Aides to Mr. Obama, pointing to the ideological and demographic make-up of Independent voters and the kind of maverick candidates to which they have historically been drawn, are looking to them to offset Mrs. Clinton's strength among registered Democrats here. In this scenario, Mr. McCain's loss could prove to be, in the topsy-turvy world of New Hampshire politics, Mr. Obama's gain. This is the first time both Republicans and Democrats have held primaries since 2000, creating what is in effect a rivalry between two parties for independent voters.

Independent voters, or undeclared voters as they are called in NH, make up 45 percent of the New Hampshire electorate, up from 28 percent in 1996, the year the legislature changed the law to simplify same-day registration. And by every indication, these voters, who voted overwhelmingly in the Republican primary of 2000, have veered sharply Democratic since than, reflecting growing anti-war sentiment here while powering a general shift of this state to the Democratic column.

It seems campaigns understand a little about Independent voters but it has not got to the main media. They look at Independent voters as different in many ways from most other voters. They say "Independent voters tend to pay less attention to the contest until the very end and are less likely to vote. As a group, they are volatile and unpredictable, which accounts for much of the uncertainty".

I think we know who we are and what we are looking for. What do you think?

Michael H. Drucker
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