Saturday, November 23, 2024

Vance's OH Senate Seat Up for Grabs


J.D. Vance's (R) Election as Vice President, has Opened up One of Ohio's U.S. Senate Seats, for the Third Time in as many years, setting off a Scramble for the Appointment among the State's Ruling Republicans.

Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is tasked with filling the Vacancy, giving a hand in Setting His Party's course in the State, potentially for years to come. The Seat comes up for Re-Election in less than Two years.

“Look, being a United States Senator is a big deal,” the Governor told Reporters in the days after the Election. “It’s a big deal for the state, and we need to get it right.” DeWine has a Long List to choose from, particularly given the Number of GOP Candidates who competed Unsuccessfully in the Senate Primaries in 2022 and 2024.

Those under Consideration who previously Lost are:

- Former Ohio Chair Jane Timken.

- Two-Term Secretary of State Frank LaRose.

- State Sen. Matt Dolan, whose Family owns Baseball's Cleveland Guardians.

- Two-term Ohio Treasurer Robert Sprague.

- Attorney and Strategist Mehek Cooke, a frequent Guest on Fox News.

While Vance's Departure also offers DeWine an Opportunity to alleviate a Bottleneck at the Top of Ohio Republicans' Political Pecking order, where Lt. Gov. Jon Husted and Attorney General Dave Yost, are preparing to face off for Governor in 2026. Husted is well into building His Campaign Organization, and Yost has said He would Decline the Appointment if Offered. DeWine, a 77-year-old former U.S. Senator is Term-Limited in 2026, also has said He would Not Appoint himself.

Meanwhile, Ambitions for the Seat among Republican Members of Ohio’s Congressional Delegation, which includes U.S. Reps. Jim Jordan, Mike Carey, David Joyce, and Warren Davidson, are being tempered by the Slim House Majority their Party scored in November.

House Vacancies necessarily take Months to Fill under Ohio’s Election Protocols, likely a consideration for DeWine, as Trump prepares to push Early Policy Priorities through Congress.

Under State Law, whoever gets the Appointment will serve from the Date of Vance's Resignation, which He hasn't Announced, until Dec. 15th, 2026. A Special Election for the last Two years of His Six-year Term would be held in November 2026.

That sSecial Election could provide a Comeback opportunity for U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who was Unseated earlier this month by Cleveland Businessman Bernie Moreno (R). Though He wasn't Specific, Brown said last week: “I’m going to stay in this arena. I’m not going away.” Former U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan (D), who Lost to Vance in 2022, could make another Run, too. And Allison Russo (D), the Leader of the Ohio House, also has been mentioned as a 2026 Senate Contender.

DeWine has made clear that He wants the Republican He chooses to be well Positioned to Defeat the Democrats in 2026. Their Strengths as a Statewide Candidate and Fundraiser are particularly Important, because Ohio's Statewide Elections also take place that year, and every Seat is Open.

A Strong Incumbent Senator at the Top of that Ticket could be Valuable to Returning Republicans to the Offices of Governor, Attorney General, Treasurer, Auditor. and Secretary of State. Stamina also could be a factor. Timken ran for Senate most recently in 2022, LaRose ran this year, and Dolan ran both times. A win in 2026 would only give the Victor a Two-year Reprieve, before having to face Ohio Voters again in 2028. “This is not for the faint-hearted,” DeWine said.

Dolan, who along with Timken is a Millionaire, is rare among Republicans competing for the Vance Appointment in Not having ever Won Trump's Backing. In both 2022 and 2024, Dolan ran in Republicans' Moderate Lane, Declining to align with Trump and Disavowing His False claims that Voter Fraud Lost Him the 2020 Election. Those Stances Won Him DeWine's Rndorsement in last year's SenatePprimary, which could be a Good Sign for the Term-Limited Ohio Senate Finance Chairman.

DeWine says He wants His Appointee to be focused on both State and National Issues, and willing to Work Hard and “get things done.” He also hinted that the Person’s Politics can’t be too Extreme. “It also has to be someone who can win a primary, it has to be someone who can win a general election, and then two years later do all that again," He said.










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