Norman J. Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, writes in the Washington Post's Opinions section, a interesting outcome of a 3 candidate Presidential election.
With an independent candidate, it would mean three candidates splitting the popular vote, probably roughly a third apiece, with the independent edging out the others with perhaps 35 percent. But that would mean little for the outcome. Presidential contests are decided by electoral votes. An independent might well secure some electoral votes, but in such a race, if no candidate comes close to the majority of 270 required, under the Constitution, we go to the for victory. House of Representatives.
House members do not vote individually but by state, a majority of which are required to select the President. Currently, 33 states have House delegations that are majority-Republican; three are evenly split; and Democrats control 14. There are no independents in the House. The numbers, of course, could change in the fall elections, but the chances of having any states controlled by independents, indeed of having any independents at all in the House, are close to nil. And given the margins of control in most states, the dominance of majority-Republican delegations isn’t likely to change.
The states themselves would have to caucus individually to determine how their votes would be cast. Members might vote for the winner of the popular vote, or the winner of the vote in their own districts, or the winner of the vote in their states, or based on partisan loyalty. Multiple ballots could be required. But the odds would be great that, in the end, the House would choose the candidate whose party controlled the most delegations.
Whatever the outcome, an independent ultimately elected President but without a single lawmaker with any attachment to him or her; or a partisan, probably a Republican, chosen primarily because of the partisan tilt of gerrymandered districts, it would not be healthy for the country.
A President elected this way would limp into office lacking legitimacy via a process ripe for logrolling and corrupt bargaining.
NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker
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