The Supreme Court may have knocked out the best-known challenge to existing congressional districts in a number of states on Monday, but maps still remain in flux for 2016 in three important, large battleground states: Florida, North Carolina and Virginia.
Continued redistricting litigation, spearheaded mostly by Democrats, who were in the legislative minority in the three states after the 2010 Census, and their allies, involves 51 of the nation’s 435 congressional districts and could allow Democrats to make a dent in the GOP’s House majority in the 2016 elections.
Florida
The decision bolsters Democrats’ case in Florida, where voters in 2010 approved amendments to the state constitution that prohibit legislators from considering partisan composition and incumbent protection when drawing new districts. Had the Arizona Legislature succeeded in convincing the court that cutting the Legislature out of the redistricting process was unconstitutional, opponents of the Florida Fair Districts amendments could have sued to have the restrictions on the Legislature there regarding congressional districts struck down as well.
Florida’s GOP-controlled Legislature was already forced to redraw the map last summer, after groups linked to Democrats sued under the Fair Districts amendments. The new map, which made slight tweaks to the districts represented by Democrat Corrine Brown and Republican Daniel Webster, was passed last August, too late for the 2014 elections, and is scheduled to take effect in 2016.
But the same groups who sued to overturn the first map are challenging the tweaked version, too, arguing the Legislature’s changes don’t go far enough. The state Supreme Court heard the case in March and is expected to release a decision soon.
If the Legislature is asked to draw a third map with more significant adjustments, it could affect some of the Sunshine State’s competitive House districts, particularly those in North and Central Florida, where Democrat Gwen Graham and Republican David Jolly hold seats in districts that voted for the opposite party’s presidential candidate in 2012. Republicans control 17 of the state’s 27 congressional districts.
North Carolina
The Supreme Court in April ordered the North Carolina Supreme Court to take another look at its decision to uphold the state’s GOP-dominated congressional map, 10 of the 13 House members from North Carolina are Republicans. The Tar Heel State’s map is among the most contorted in the country, though GOP legislators have claimed that the VRA forced them to draw districts like the state’s 12th District, which snakes from Charlotte up to Greensboro to take in black voters; roughly half of the district’s residents are African-Americans. Democratic Rep. Alma Adams won more than 75 percent of the vote there last fall. The North Carolina Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in the case on Aug. 31.
Virginia
In Virginia, a court has found that the GOP-controlled Legislature in 2012 packed African-American voters into Democratic Rep. Bobby Scott’s district in order to shore up GOP Reps. Scott Rigell and Randy Forbes, who represent adjacent districts. The court is giving the Virginia General Assembly until Sept. 1 to redraw the map, a process that could make the two Republican seats more competitive. But Republicans, who hold eight of the commonwealth’s 11 House seats, have pledged to appeal.
NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker
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