The Independent View: Some 2018 Midterm Election and Ballot Measures Takeaways

Early Takeaways from Midterm Election 2018 concerning Statewide Ballot Measures:

- Recreational Marijuana was Approved in Michigan, and it was Defeated in North Dakota.

- Medicaid Expansion: Likely to Win in 3 out of 4 States; Medicaid Expansion Measures were being Approved in Idaho, and Nebraska, and Utah. Montana’s Question, which was combined with a Tobacco Tax and drew significant Spending in Opposition, was Defeated.

- Colorado Voters defeated Proposition 112, the Mandatory Setbacks for New Oil and Gas, and Proposition 74, the Amendment to require Compensation to Property Owners for State Regulations that Decreased Property Value, ultimately siding with Pro-Economy Arguments in the most Expensive Measure battles on Colorado’s crowded 2018 Ballot.

- Florida Amendment 4, the Voting Rights Restoration to Felons Amendment, was Approved.

- Redistricting Proposals Win in at least 3 out of 4 States. Independent Commissions for Congressional and Legislative Redistricting were Approved in Colorado (Amendment Y and Amendment Z) and Michigan (Proposal 2), becoming the First East of the Rockies.

Unique Amendment 1 was Approved in Missouri for Legislative Redistricting and establishes the First ever State Demographer and First-of-their-Kind Formulas for Competitiveness and Partisan Fairness in Drawing District Maps.

Utah’s Measure (Proposition 4) to Establish an Independent Redistricting Commission is too close to call.

- New York: With the Governor, Comptroller, Attorney General, U.S. Senate, State Senate, and State Assembly, is now a Democratic State. Look for Voting Reform in 2019.

Criminal Justice Reform

Coloradans outlawed Involuntary Servitude as a punishment.

In Louisiana, Voters said Juries in Felony Trials must be Unanimous in their Verdicts, Overturning a Jim Crow-era Law that allowed 10 of 12 Jurors to decide Cases.

Washington State Passed a Ballot Measure requiring Mental Health and De-Escalation Training for Police Officers, in an effort to Reduce Officer-Involved Shootings.

Voters in Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Oklahoma Approved Initiatives Expanding the Rights of Crime Victims. Marsy’s Laws, as they’re called, named after a College Student who was Murdered in 1983, generally require Authorities to Locate Victims for even Low-Level Crimes and allow the Victims to be Heard at Court Hearings. Supporters say the Measures give Crime Victims the Rights they deserve, but even some Prosecutors have said they may be too Expensive and Difficult to put into effect.

Taxes, Education, and Cost of Living

Florida Voters Approved a Measure that requires a Two-Thirds Majority in the Legislature to enact New Taxes and Fees or Raise Existing Ones. Similar Laws across the Country have led to Reduced Funding for Schools, one of the Factors that led to Teacher Walkouts in Six States this year.

There were Defeats for Education Funding in Two walkout States. Colorado Rejected an attempt to Raise Taxes on the Affluent in order to Fund Schools, and North Carolina Lowered the Top Income Tax Rate.

In Arizona, the Site of a Weeklong Teacher Walkout, Voters chose to Reject an Expansion of a Voucher like Program that Allows Tax Dollars to Pay Private School Tuition. Teacher Activists had argued that the Law leeched Dollars from Public Schools.

In a continuation of a trend from 2016, Voters in Two Conservative States, Arkansas and Missouri, raised the Minimum Wage, a Policy that is often popular across Party Lines. Missouri’s Wage rose to $12 from $7.85, and Arkansas’ increased to $11 an hour from $8.50.

In California, where Housing Costs are the Steepest in the Nation, Voters wrestled with Two Housing-related Measures. One Referendum on the Statewide Ballot, to Overturn a State Law Limiting the Ability of Local Governments to Enact Rent Controls, was Defeated. But Voters in San Francisco Passed a Plan to Raise Corporate Taxes in order to Pay for Homeless Services.

The Environment

A hugely Expensive and deeply divisive Fight in Washington State over whether to Create the Nation’s First Carbon Fee Impassioned Voters in a year when Three of the State’s 10 Seats in the House of Representatives were Competitive. The Measure, aimed at Reducing Climate Change, would place a Fee of $15 per Ton of Carbon Emissions, with an Increase of $2 a year; most of the Revenue would be Invested in Renewable Energy and Air Pollution Reduction. A Proposal to Mandate more Renewable Energy Failed in Arizona.

Transgender Rights

In a Vote seen as a Test of a potential wedge Issue ahead of the 2020 Election, Massachusetts became the First State to consider a Ballot Measure targeting Transgender Rights. Voters Rejected a Referendum that would have Repealed a 2016 Law that Prevents Discrimination in Public Spaces, including Bathrooms and Locker Rooms, based on Gender Identity. That Law easily Passed the Democratic-controlled Legislature.

Marijuana

Michigan became the First Midwestern State to Legalize Recreational Marijuana, while North Dakota Voters decided not to.

Nine States and the District of Columbia already allow Adults to Buy and Possess Marijuana in Small Amounts for Recreational use. States have wrestled with the Question of whether Higher Marijuana Taxes would discourage Use, and Limit Revenue, or simply Preserve the Illegal Market, with its Cheaper Prices.

In Michigan, Taxes will be relatively Low: a 10% Excise Tax and a 6% Sales Tax.

Missouri Voters Legalized Medical Marijuana, joining 31 States and the District of Columbia that already allow Medical use. Medical Marijuana was also on the Ballot in Utah, where Votes were still being Counted.

Health Care

Voting on Medicaid, the Federal Public Health Insurance program, is relatively New. Maine became the First State, last year, to Expand Coverage through the Ballot. On Tuesday, Four Conservative States took up the Issue, Idaho, Utah, Nebraska, and Montana. Voters in Idaho and Nebraska Passed the Expansions, bringing Tens of Thousands of additional Adults under Medicaid Coverage.

Montana’s Measure would Raise Tobacco Taxes to Pay for, and continue, a Medicaid Expansion that might otherwise Expire. Utah’s Proposal included a Sales Tax Increase to help Fund the Expansion. Votes were still being Counted in those States.

Abortion is a perennial focus for Ballot Measures. Alabama and West Virginia Voters Approved sweeping State Constitutional Language declaring that Women have No Right to an Abortion. The Measures were Priorities for Religious Conservatives, and could either prompt a Supreme Court Case or pave the way for Outright Bans if the Court were to Overturn Roe v. Wade.

Voting Rights

Another echo of America’s Political Divisions, whether to make Voting and Voter Registration easier, or Guard against Possible Improprieties with Tighter Requirements, played out on State Ballots. Maryland Voted to allow Registration right up to Election Day, while North Carolina and Arkansas Voters Amended their State Constitutions to require Voters to present Photo Identification when Casting Ballots.

Michigan Approved a Plan that would Automatically Register Voters when they Renew or Apply for a Driver’s License, unless they Opt Out, as well as allow Later Registration and Expand Absentee Voting. A similar Measure also Passed in Nevada.