Thursday, June 1, 2017

What Trump's Paris Climate Accord Withdrawal Means

President Trump announced Thursday he will pull out of the Paris Climate agreement, something his daughter and top Adviser, Ivanka Trump, opposed. "We're getting out, but we will start to negotiate and see if we can make a deal that's fair," Trump said Thursday afternoon. "And if we can, that's great."

While the final result is technically a loss, the President's decision to withdraw over Three Years allows him the flexibility to change course with Renegotiated Terms.

But the decision to use the Withdrawal mechanism written into the Accord, rather than Removing the U.S. entirely from the Treaty, could signal that he's still Listening to the first Daughter, who has long had his ear.

The actual Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement would take place on November 4th, 2020, according to a Paris Negotiator, four years after the Deal went into force on November 4th, 2016. That is one day after the 2020 Election on November 3rd, meaning it's possible it won't happen at all if Trump loses his Re-Election Bid.

The Climate Deal

Trump has not spoken Publicly about the issue or outlined any Specific Initiatives on behalf of the Administration, but during the Transition, Ivanka wanted to make Climate Change "one of her signature issues." Reports cast her as a would-be "Climate Czar," setting high expectations on this topic. In February, leaks to The Wall Street Journal did little to minimize those expectations, which suggested Ivanka and her husband persuaded the President to strike language critical of the Climate Deal from a Draft of an Executive Order.

Recognizing she faced an uphill battle, her father frequently railed against the Paris Deal on the Campaign Trail, she set to arm the President with information. He is known to listen to a variety of voices and perspectives before making decisions, and his daughter ran point. She was very involved in the decision process, and took a proactive role in shepherding those perspectives as he made up his mind.

"The President's inclination was to pull out" of the agreement, and she helped set up a process to ensure that he heard from all sides, both inside and outside the Government. Those meetings included EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt, as well as Climate Change Activists like actor Leonardo DiCaprio and former Vice President Al Gore, whom the President met with during the Transition and spoke with again earlier this month.

Kushner was said to be more open to leaving the Agreement, and felt the Agreement's Standards didn't work for the U.S. Economy. But after months of discussion, Trump's mind was not changed.
The President was sure he needed to begin the Withdrawal Process, and there was no talking to him about it, per a source close to Trump. He was convinced the Deal would be bad for the U.S., believing that the U.S. is a "laughing stock" for participating in this Agreement. He also wants to Negotiated a better Deal, which he could not do without Pulling Out, the source said.

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